Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd11f…2251 crypto 13 markets active 2h ago coverage 621d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$9 (-1%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate67%8W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 87% −$3
crypto 11% +$1
sports 2% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 1 +0.8% -8.8% 100% 0% -8.8%
≤90d 2 +0.7% -8.9% 100% 0% -8.9%
all 12 -9.2% -17.8% 67% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 8% -10.1%
10% -25.7% 8% -18.7%
15% -32.9% 8% -26.6%
20% -39.4% 8% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

621d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses8 / 4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage621d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 17? Jun 29 $25 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 28? Mar 18 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? Feb 27 $25 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? Feb 10 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? Feb 10 $24 $0 +1%
Pistons vs. Hawks Sep 25 $6 +$4 +72%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 21 $594 +$6 +1%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Nov 11 $10 −$7 -76%
Will Barcelona win La Liga? Nov 11 $9 −$2 -19%
World Series: Yankees vs. Dodgers Game 4 Nov 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 16 $580 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 75d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 103d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on February 28? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 122d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on February 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 139d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 2? BUY No 92¢ $10 147d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on February 3? BUY Yes 99¢ $24 147d
Pistons vs. Hawks BUY Pistons 58¢ $6 524d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 100¢ $13 525d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $9 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $3 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $3 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $3 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $8 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $37 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $103 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $37 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $4 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $2 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $71 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY No $277 569d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL No $277 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY No $277 570d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? SELL Yes 94¢ $27 582d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 583d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 94¢ $9 583d
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? BUY Yes 94¢ $8 583d
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? SELL No 12¢ $2 595d
Will Barcelona win La Liga? SELL No 38¢ $8 595d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.69 · official $24.69 (match) · 44 history records