Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T03:17:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D1 0xd122…0f2b other 63 markets active 2h ago coverage 448d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$42 (+2%) realized +$42 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$6
14 days+$2
30 days+$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 59% +$39
other 25% −$2
politics 5% $0
crypto 5% +$1
economics 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -0.7% -10.1% 36% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 21 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 5% -7.1%
≤90d 21 +3.1% -6.7% 48% 5% -7.1%
all 62 +1.5% -8.2% 42% 3% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 3% -7.8%
10% -17.0% 2% -16.6%
15% -25.0% 2% -24.7%
20% -32.3% 2% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.14 per $1 lost it wins $5.14
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

448d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$42
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage448d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 14¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-82%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $42 −$2 -4%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 24 $137 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $8 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $70 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $69 +$1 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $60 −$1 -2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $127 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $182 +$5 +3%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $83 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 +$33 +57%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 07 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jul 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Jul 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Jul 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jul 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jul 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Jul 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 in July? Jul 14 $6 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 National League Championshi Jul 14 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Ousmane Dembele win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jul 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? Jul 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 13 $21 $0 -1%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jul 11 $21 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jul 11 $21 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 10 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60K in July? Jul 09 $21 $0 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jul 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Jul 08 $21 $0 +2%
Will Fluminense win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 08 $21 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Jul 08 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $20 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 5h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 13h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 14h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $12 14h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $58 18h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $12 19h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $69 24h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $6 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $8 29h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $6 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $25 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 2d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $69 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $33 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $70 3d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 78¢ $49 5d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 78¢ $49 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $22 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $7 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $41 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $69 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $59 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $34 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.01 · official $0.00 (match) · 205 history records