Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T09:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

D1 0xd122…5d93 sports 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$16 (-2%) realized −$3 · open −$13

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip

Net edge-22%after slip

Net WR64%break-even

Win rate64%9W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day25.2pace

Fees−$7est.

Kalshi-fit67%portable

Net worth$13now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +64%

net ROI/market (all)-8.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+1.5%	-8.2%	64%	64%	-6.9%
≤30d	14	+1.5%	-8.2%	64%	64%	-6.9%
≤90d	14	+1.5%	-8.2%	64%	64%	-6.9%
all	14	+1.5%	-8.2%	64%	64%	-6.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover25.2 tr/day

realistic slip~13%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-8.2%	64%	-6.9%
10% ← realistic here	-17.0%	36%	-15.8%
15%	-25.0%	21%	-23.9%
20%	-32.3%	21%	-31.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +0% → late +3% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$27 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.18 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$13

Realized−$3

Unrealized−$13

Win rate (resolved)64%

Wins / losses9 / 5

Est. fees paid−$7

Open positions1

Markets (closed)14 / 15

History coverage1d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day25.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner	OlyBet SB	52¢	26¢	$26	$13	−$13 (-49%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?	Jun 28	$17	−$17	-100%
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	Jun 28	$54	+$28	+52%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner	Jun 28	$60	−$6	-10%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$47	+$13	+27%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	Jun 28	$85	+$13	+16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	Jun 28	$116	+$18	+16%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	Jun 28	$100	+$17	+17%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs C9	Jun 28	$81	−$81	-100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$36	−$19	-53%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	Jun 28	$4	+$6	+129%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	Jun 28	$100	+$28	+28%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham	Jun 27	$16	−$12	-74%
LoL Cross Regional: DK vs LOS	Jun 27	$68	+$13	+19%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 27	$44	+$24	+54%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB - Map 2 Winner	BUY OlyBet SB	52¢	$26	39m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	SELL OlyBet SB	68¢	$1	43m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	SELL OlyBet SB	68¢	$63	46m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	SELL OlyBet SB	68¢	$6	49m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	SELL OlyBet SB	68¢	$12	49m
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	BUY OlyBet SB	44¢	$7	1h
Counter-Strike: Honvéd vs OlyBet SB (BO3) - European Pro League Series	BUY OlyBet SB	44¢	$47	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	50¢	$54	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	54¢	$8	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	54¢	$39	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 4 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	54¢	$13	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	SELL Karmine Corp	100¢	$60	1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner	BUY Karmine Corp	78¢	$47	4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$99	4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner	BUY T1	86¢	$85	4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$135	4h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner	BUY T1	86¢	$116	5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	SELL T1	100¢	$117	5h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner	BUY T1	85¢	$100	6h
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	42¢	$17	6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	SELL Yes	28¢	$17	6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	60¢	$10	6h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	SELL	84¢	$10	6h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	57¢	$26	6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	SELL	99¢	$128	7h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? AND	BUY	36¢	$4	19h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham	SELL MIBR Academy	3¢	$4	19h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham	BUY MIBR Academy	10¢	$9	19h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Panama win on 2026-06-27?	BUY	77¢	$100	19h
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham	BUY MIBR Academy	10¢	$7	19h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.25 · official $13.25 (match) · 37 history records