Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:12:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd123…d341 sports 115 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 39d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (86 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,803 (-0%) realized −$1,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate33%46W / 95L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6,549per market
Trades / day85.8pace
Fees−$13,023est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 40d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$54,734
other 11% +$7,360
crypto 0% −$300
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (86 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 -71.4% -74.2% 11% 11% -61.6%
≤30d 106 -6.0% -15.0% 27% 25% -41.7%
≤90d 141 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 30% -32.4%
all 141 +2.2% -7.5% 33% 30% -32.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.8 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.5% 30% -32.4%
10% -16.4% 30% -38.9%
15% ← realistic here -24.4% 29% -44.8%
20% -31.9% 28% -50.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$7,865) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
23.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5,998 vs −$5,153 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses46 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Est. fees paid−$13,023
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 115
History coverage40d ⚠
Avg bet$6,549
Trades / day85.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions (98 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ugo Humbert vs Dino Prizmic Jun 19 $8,609 −$8,609 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tomas Machac Jun 19 $1,562 −$1,562 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jun 19 $10,437 −$11,060 -106%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Madison Keys vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $10,362 −$10,362 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Tomas Machac Jun 19 $2,179 −$2,179 -100%
76ers vs. Bulls Jun 19 $15,754 −$15,754 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Cristian Garin vs Alexander Zverev Jun 19 $352 −$352 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Spirit (BO1) Jun 19 $2,303 −$2,303 -100%
Kings vs. Pacers Jun 19 $700 −$700 -100%
Lakers vs. Celtics Jun 19 $3,487 −$3,487 -100%
UFC 323: Ziam vs. Sadykhov (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 19 $16,580 −$16,580 -100%
Oilers vs. Lightning Jun 19 $10,083 −$10,083 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Lorenzo Musetti vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $512 −$512 -100%
Pelicans vs. Mavericks Jun 19 $12,496 −$12,496 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Jun 19 $1,747 −$357 -20%
Blackhawks vs. Sabres Jun 19 $5,681 −$5,681 -100%
Rolex Monte Carlo Masters: Andrey Rublev vs Nuno Borges Jun 19 $3,296 +$2,198 +67%
Knicks vs. Magic Jun 19 $8,826 −$8,826 -100%
Sharks vs. Avalanche Jun 19 $7,425 −$7,425 -100%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Jun 19 $20,344 −$20,344 -100%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs TheMongolz (BO3) Jun 19 $435 −$435 -100%
Bills vs. Steelers Jun 19 $822 −$822 -100%
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs M80 (BO3) Jun 19 $964 −$964 -100%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Jun 19 $9,523 −$9,523 -100%
BNP Paribas Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Jannik Sinner Jun 19 $3,950 −$3,950 -100%
Bucks vs. Knicks Jun 19 $13,809 −$13,809 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $14,848 +$10,394 +70%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $2,545 +$626 +25%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $76,587 −$407 -0%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $5,660 −$5,657 -100%
Nottingham 2: Zhizhen Zhang vs Roman Safiullin Jun 18 $3,711 +$11,695 +315%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $314 −$305 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $170 −$166 -97%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $4,512 −$4,505 -100%
Modena: Kaitlin Quevedo vs Laura Samson Jun 12 $3,109 −$3,040 -98%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Taylor Fritz Jun 12 $11,117 −$10,961 -99%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 12 $14,064 −$4,748 -34%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Kamil Majchrzak Jun 12 $5,460 −$5,442 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Ben Shelton vs Marcos Giron Jun 12 $4,387 −$4,324 -99%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 12 $4,194 −$4,150 -99%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 12 $3,650 −$3,595 -98%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $3,311 +$1,836 +56%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $5,659 +$2,029 +36%
Libema Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Rinderknech Jun 11 $10,352 +$9,709 +94%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $2,083 +$7,949 +382%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $10,619 +$2,541 +24%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 10 $1,728 +$6,710 +388%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $5,551 −$5,475 -99%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16,600 +$13,325 +80%
Stuttgart Open: Nick Kyrgios vs Corentin Moutet Jun 09 $10,833 −$10,779 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 91¢ $9,630 50m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $16 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $17 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $100 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $17 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $17 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $17 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $6,633 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 85¢ $8,795 51m
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 10¢ $31 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 43¢ $193 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 44¢ $1,442 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 49¢ $1,658 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 53¢ $1,107 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 53¢ $2,389 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $17 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $2 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $17 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $3 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $26 1h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 52¢ $7,961 1h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 77¢ $453 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $15 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $1 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $4 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $5 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $3 2h
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo SELL Francisco Cerundolo 73¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records