Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:46:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd124…2786 crypto 1757 markets active 4h ago coverage 114d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 113d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$19 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate91%1602W / 154L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day16.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days+$5
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$6
sports 0% −$1
other 0% +$5
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 449 +0.6% -9.0% 86% 41% -7.8%
≤30d 635 +0.9% -8.7% 86% 46% -7.4%
≤90d 1466 +0.5% -9.1% 92% 20% -8.7%
all 1756 +0.3% -9.2% 91% 17% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 17% -9.1%
10% -17.9% 2% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$19
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses1602 / 154
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1756 / 1757
History coverage114d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day16.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? No 94¢ 94¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? No 87¢ 84¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 90 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1 +$6 +550%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 19 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 19 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +10%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 18? Jun 18 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Sweden? BUY No 94¢ $2 3h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $1 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 41¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $2 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $0 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $1 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $0 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $2 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.35 · official $4.35 (match) · 3500 history records