Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T00:07:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd127…5006 weather 129 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$6 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate66%84W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 84% −$9
world 7% +$1
other 6% +$3
economics 1% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 1% +$1
culture 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 127 -33.6% -39.9% 65% 0% -9.8%
all 128 -33.2% -39.6% 66% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -39.6% 1% -9.7%
10% -45.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -50.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -55.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -66% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses84 / 44
Open positions1
Markets (closed)128 / 129
History coverage92d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 01 $87 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20? Apr 28 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 Apr 28 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 Apr 21 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20? Apr 21 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? Apr 20 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on April 17? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? Apr 20 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 19? Apr 20 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 18? Apr 19 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 35°C on April 18? Apr 19 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on April 19? Apr 19 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? Apr 19 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $11 $0 -1%
Will White House post 180-199 posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Apr 18 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 71°F or below on April 17? Apr 18 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 18? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 17? Apr 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 66-67°F on Apri Apr 18 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on April 17? Apr 18 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 31°C on April 17? Apr 18 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on April 16? Apr 17 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on April 16? Apr 17 $11 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 52-53°F on April 15 Apr 17 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Apr Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 16°C on April 15? Apr 16 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 29°C or below on April 16? Apr 16 $10 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on April 15? Apr 16 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 55°F or below on April 15? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on April 16? Apr 16 $14 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on April 16? Apr 16 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 14? Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 47°F or below on April 14? Apr 15 $13 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 21°C or higher on April Apr 15 $10 $0 -2%
DeepSeek V4 released by April 15? Apr 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C or higher on April 13? Apr 14 $15 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on April 13? Apr 14 $12 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 13? Apr 14 $11 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 13? Apr 14 $13 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 14? Apr 14 $15 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on April 13? Apr 14 $14 $0 -1%
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between Apr 13 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C on April 12? Apr 13 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C on April 12? Apr 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 12? Apr 13 $13 $0 -2%
Will René Yahuasi Calamani win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Apr 12 $9 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Donald Trump have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $87 20d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 59d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $12 59d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 74-75°F on April 20 BUY No 98¢ $14 59d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 76-77°F on April 20? BUY No 98¢ $11 60d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 19? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 24°C on April 19? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 61d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 13°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 8°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $13 61d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C or higher on April 19 BUY No 99¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 44°C on April 19? BUY No 98¢ $10 61d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on April 19? BUY No 99¢ $14 61d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on April 19 BUY No 99¢ $11 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.98 · official $29.98 (match) · 315 history records