Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T22:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd12b…6570 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$379 (-11%) realized −$265 · open −$114
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate50%17W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$93per market
Trades / day8.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$869
other 37% +$179
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-30.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 47% -26.4%
≤30d 34 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 47% -26.4%
≤90d 34 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 47% -26.4%
all 34 -23.4% -30.7% 50% 47% -26.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.7% 47% -26.4%
10% -37.3% 32% -33.5%
15% -43.4% 21% -39.9%
20% -48.9% 12% -45.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$71 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$155
Realized−$265
Unrealized−$114
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses17 / 17
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$93
Trades / day8.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 26¢ $172 $125 −$47 (-27%)
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 Over 69¢ 21¢ $97 $30 −$67 (-70%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $103 −$1 -1%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $70 +$33 +48%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $105 −$105 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $35 −$35 -100%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $153 −$153 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $126 −$126 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $262 −$262 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $47 +$21 +44%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 26 $132 +$161 +122%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $117 +$15 +13%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $27 +$46 +172%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $53 +$31 +60%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $97 +$16 +16%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $105 −$105 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $14 −$14 -100%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $113 +$37 +32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $53 +$15 +28%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $171 +$32 +19%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $144 +$41 +29%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $42 −$42 -100%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $73 −$73 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 24 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 24 $21 −$21 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $106 −$106 -100%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 24 $142 +$25 +18%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $97 +$47 +49%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $178 +$12 +7%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $51 +$57 +112%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $151 +$17 +11%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $119 +$32 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. England: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $102 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 93¢ $103 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 86¢ $103 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 61¢ $103 19h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $70 19h
Uruguay vs. Spain: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $47 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $53 22h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $262 22h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $182 26h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 79¢ $153 44h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $105 44h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $35 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $293 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $68 45h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 29¢ $64 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $133 46h
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 81¢ $117 47h
Japan vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $126 47h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 79¢ $72 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $84 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 26¢ $27 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $113 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $97 2d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $53 2d
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $113 2d
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $105 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 87¢ $67 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $53 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $203 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $171 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $154.84 · official $152.73 · 73 history records