Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:02:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd12c…0679 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$34 (-6%) realized −$14 · open −$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$41
politics 29% +$69
world 16% −$46
crypto 7% $0
finance 3% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-35.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +47.1% +33.1% 100% 100% +33.1%
≤90d 3 -51.0% -55.6% 33% 33% +5.0%
all 13 -28.8% -35.6% 54% 23% -13.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.6% 23% -13.7%
10% -41.8% 23% -21.9%
15% -47.4% 23% -29.5%
20% -52.5% 0% -36.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 86% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -29% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$19 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$14
Unrealized−$20
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Open positions3
Markets (closed)13 / 16
History coverage183d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $150 $146 −$4 (-3%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 45¢ 10¢ $20 $4 −$16 (-79%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 23 $150 +$71 +47%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
US bank failure by January 31? Apr 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027? Mar 19 $20 +$7 +37%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $20 +$9 +45%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 01 $20 −$20 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 11, 2026? Jan 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 06 $29 −$29 -100%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jan 06 $27 +$3 +10%
Will Trump talk to Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in December? Jan 03 $20 +$1 +5%
S&P 500 all time high by December 31? Dec 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump talk to Ursula von der Leyen in December? Dec 28 $8 −$2 -29%
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 15, 2026? Dec 23 $25 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.92 · official $189.92 (match) · 32 history records