Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:44:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D1 0xd12c…ed3d sports 146 markets active 3d ago coverage 221d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$4,943 (+4%) realized +$4,967 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%72W / 71L
Whale WR61%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$891per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1,169est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6,246
14 days+$2,979
30 days+$4,149
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$5,808
other 4% −$1,807
crypto 0% +$8
world 0% −$22
politics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +91.3% +73.1% 70% 70% +67.1%
≤30d 101 +20.3% +8.9% 48% 48% -4.2%
≤90d 111 +20.6% +9.1% 50% 50% -2.1%
all 143 +14.9% +3.9% 50% 50% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +3.9% 50% -6.7%
10% -6.0% 49% -15.6%
15% -15.1% 45% -23.8%
20% -23.4% 38% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 61% (≥$1,260) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late +26% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$841 vs −$796 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$4,967
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses72 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)61%
Est. fees paid−$1,169
Open positions3
Markets (closed)143 / 146
History coverage221d
Avg bet$891
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 143 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? Yes 62¢ 51¢ $131 $107 −$24 (-18%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $18 $14 −$3 (-18%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 15¢ 21¢ $10 $14 +$4 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $254 +$246 +97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,075 −$1,060 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $855 +$1,145 +134%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $18 +$38 +216%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 14 $1,785 +$1,715 +96%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,590 +$3,410 +214%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $130 +$490 +376%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $367 −$360 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $247 −$240 -97%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,086 +$860 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $1,175 −$1,160 -99%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 +$880 +733%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $919 −$270 -29%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $350 −$350 -100%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $694 −$690 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $393 −$390 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $120 −$120 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1,279 +$2,221 +174%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $1,548 −$1,530 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $1,036 −$1,025 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $1,582 −$1,560 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $766 −$755 -99%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Jun 12 $1,373 −$1,360 -99%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $487 +$513 +105%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 12 $417 +$583 +140%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,413 +$587 +42%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $510 −$500 -98%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 10 $567 +$433 +76%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 08 $649 −$41 -6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $347 −$340 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 08 $55 +$38 +69%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 08 $610 +$390 +64%
Game Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Karmine Corp (+1.5) Jun 08 $487 +$513 +105%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 08 $874 +$843 +96%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,432 +$568 +40%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $282 +$637 +226%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $656 +$844 +129%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $1,586 −$1,119 -71%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $649 −$645 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $467 −$460 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,282 −$1,260 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $679 −$675 -100%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $1,410 −$1,390 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $547 −$540 -99%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Movistar KOI (+1.5) Jun 06 $1,254 −$1,240 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,183 −$1,162 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $693 −$680 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $878 −$860 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $343 −$337 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $254 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,075 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 42¢ $855 5d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $18 6d
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $8 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 36¢ $367 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $10 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $7 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 21¢ $113 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 8¢ $247 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $628 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $9 6d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 48¢ $83 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $263 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $27 6d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $290 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,945 6d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $669 7d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $417 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $51 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $35 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $115 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $1 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $23 7d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1,175 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $6 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $54 7d
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) BUY T1 53¢ $226 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.67 · official $134.67 (match) · 686 history records