Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D1 0xd12e…d99a sports 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$26 (+7%) realized +$35 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate54%7W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% +$1
other 26% +$34
crypto 6% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 54% 54% -0.7%
≤30d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 54% 54% -0.7%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 54% 54% -0.7%
all 13 -0.0% -9.6% 54% 54% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 54% -0.7%
10% -18.2% 54% -10.2%
15% -26.1% 54% -18.9%
20% -33.4% 54% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized+$35
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses7 / 6
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions4
Markets (closed)13 / 18
History coverage6d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 46¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 31¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $30 +$20 +67%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $30 +$21 +70%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$14 +70%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $15 +$18 +116%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $20 +$20 +97%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $30 1h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $20 2h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $20 13h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $51 21h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 22h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $5 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $20 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 49¢ $10 23h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 26h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $34 46h
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $20 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $33 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 45¢ $15 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $21 4d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $20 5d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 5d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 5d
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 AND Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY 41¢ $20 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $20 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.33 · official $81.33 (match) · 27 history records