Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:58:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5

score

D1 0xd12e…0fc4 crypto 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$21 · open −$9

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -45% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip

Net edge-52%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate55%12W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,042per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,097now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$18

7 days+$17

14 days+$5

30 days+$17

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-50.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	-14.1%	-22.3%	86%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	20	-39.9%	-45.6%	60%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	22	-45.3%	-50.5%	55%	0%	-9.5%
all	22	-45.3%	-50.5%	55%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-50.5%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-55.3%	0%	-18.1%
15%	-59.6%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-63.6%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -45% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,075) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -45% → late -45% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×1.24 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage

Net worth$2,097

Realized+$21

Unrealized−$9

Win rate (resolved)55%

Wins / losses12 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)22 / 24

History coverage32d

Avg bet$1,042

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	No	100¢	99¢	$2,101	$2,092	−$9 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	Jun 18	$2,097	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$98	$0	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17?	Jun 18	$1,996	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17?	Jun 17	$2,088	+$6	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	Jun 17	$2,084	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16?	Jun 16	$2,080	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1?	Jun 02	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	Jun 01	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26?	May 27	$2,081	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	May 26	$2,075	+$6	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25?	May 26	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	May 25	$2,067	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$2,063	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	May 24	$2,059	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	May 22	$0	$0	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	May 18	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,101	1h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 18?	BUY No	100¢	$2,097	14h
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$98	25h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$1,996	25h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 17?	BUY No	100¢	$2,088	43h
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,084	2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on June 16?	BUY No	100¢	$2,080	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	5d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 11?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 9?	BUY No	0¢	$4	9d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	13d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 on May 29?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$5	22d
Will Solana reach $95 on May 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,081	23d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	BUY No	100¢	$2,075	23d
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 25?	BUY No	100¢	$2,067	24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,063	25d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,059	25d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	32d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,096.72 · official $2,096.72 (match) · 37 history records