Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:29:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd12f…e85a other 436 markets active 2h ago coverage 59d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 59d only
✗ bot/MM pace (54 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$8,002 (+9%) realized +$7,690 · open +$312
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate74%251W / 86L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$9,927now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$306
14 days+$563
30 days+$1,329
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% +$4,266
politics 17% +$870
tech 12% +$407
crypto 8% +$51
finance 6% +$773
sports 6% +$390
world 3% +$320
culture 0% −$6
economics 0% −$4
weather 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (54 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -12.0% -20.4% 65% 26% -6.5%
≤30d 196 +7.3% -2.9% 70% 23% -7.0%
≤90d 337 +27.7% +15.6% 74% 36% -0.4%
all 337 +27.7% +15.6% 74% 36% -0.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +15.6% 36% -0.4%
10% ← realistic here +4.5% 25% -9.9%
15% -5.6% 20% -18.6%
20% -14.9% 16% -26.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +28% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +46% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$14 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.71 per $1 lost it wins $6.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

59d coverage
Net worth$9,927
Realized+$7,690
Unrealized+$312
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses251 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions99
Markets (closed)337 / 436
History coverage59d ⚠
Avg bet$194
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 99 History 337 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $2,006 $2,166 +$160 (+8%)
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $971 $997 +$25 (+3%)
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $796 $814 +$18 (+2%)
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $800 $798 −$2 (-0%)
Will Jorge Bom Jesus win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? No 64¢ 78¢ $623 $767 +$144 (+23%)
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Yes 98¢ 98¢ $442 $441 −$1 (-0%)
Will David Lisnard be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $349 $360 +$10 (+3%)
Will Claude Code Commits be at least 750.0k on June 30? Yes 36¢ 34¢ $328 $307 −$22 (-7%)
Will Burna Boy perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 49¢ 44¢ $325 $290 −$34 (-11%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 95¢ 99¢ $202 $210 +$8 (+4%)
Trump renames ICE to NICE by June 30? No 80¢ 95¢ $152 $179 +$27 (+18%)
Will Michel-Edouard Leclerc be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 84¢ 92¢ $160 $175 +$15 (+9%)
Will India’s 2026 Annual Inflation be at least 4.50%? Yes 77¢ 68¢ $184 $160 −$23 (-13%)
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential elections? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will Gabriel Attal be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 42¢ 46¢ $128 $139 +$11 (+9%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by December 31? Yes 87¢ 85¢ $142 $138 −$4 (-3%)
Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? No 100¢ 98¢ $130 $128 −$2 (-1%)
Will the iPhone 18 Pro cost at least $1000? Yes 94¢ 96¢ $124 $127 +$3 (+3%)
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 350.0k by June 30? No 90¢ 98¢ $101 $110 +$9 (+9%)
Yoon out of custody before 2027? No 83¢ 84¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Will Claude Code Commits be between 500.0k and 550.0k on June 30? No 94¢ 93¢ $98 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Vesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026? No 92¢ 88¢ $79 $76 −$3 (-4%)
Will Claude Code Commits hit (LOW) 400.0k by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+7%)
E. Jean Carroll federally charged by July 31, 2026? No 65¢ 86¢ $55 $73 +$17 (+32%)
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by August 30? Yes 96¢ 68¢ $100 $71 −$29 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Jun 25 $126 +$5 +4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $132 +$1 +1%
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $5 −$4 -82%
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential electi Jun 25 $76 +$14 +18%
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? Jun 25 $1,419 +$16 +1%
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 25 $250 +$5 +2%
Will Juan Branco be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential ele Jun 25 $60 +$4 +6%
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? Jun 25 $1,174 $0 +0%
Will Nino Monteiro win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential ele Jun 24 $19 +$1 +5%
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026? Jun 24 $7 +$2 +31%
Will Keir Starmer be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $8 +$1 +18%
Congress passes Iran war powers resolution by June 30? Jun 23 $500 $0 +0%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 1+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $500 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PSD? Jun 22 $8 +$14 +179%
Andy Burnham becomes an MP by June 30? Jun 22 $1,490 +$5 +0%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Jun 22 $309 +$11 +4%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4800+ by June 30? Jun 21 $2,126 +$274 +13%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26? Jun 21 $89 −$4 -5%
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? Jun 20 $411 +$70 +17%
Will Marc Guéhi be in England's Starting 11? Jun 19 $31 −$16 -51%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $16 −$16 -100%
Will "Spider" be said 4+ times during the next Spider-Man trailer? Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Will Simon Finkelstein win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Maria Deery win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be a member of PNL? Jun 19 $4 +$9 +226%
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? Jun 19 $7 +$3 +41%
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 17? Jun 19 $164 $0 +0%
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Jun 18 $3,068 +$42 +1%
Will Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31? Jun 17 $390 +$10 +3%
Will Smith & Wesson (SWBI) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
FDA approves GSK & Spero Therapeutics' Tebipenem HBr? Jun 17 $463 +$88 +19%
Jay Clayton confirmed as Director of National Intelligence by June 30? Jun 17 $100 −$60 -60%
Will CarMax (KMX) beat quarterly earnings? Jun 17 $700 +$1 +0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $103 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $3 −$3 -95%
Will Claude Code Commits be between 700.0k and 750.0k on June 30? Jun 15 $4 +$11 +269%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$6 +133%
Will the No. 7 Toyota Racing win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $684 +$9 +1%
Will the No. 43 Inter Europol Competition win the LMP2 class at the 20 Jun 15 $288 +$5 +2%
Will Éric Zemmour be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential el Jun 15 $24 +$29 +119%
Will the No. 13 13 Autosport win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $91 $0 +0%
Will the No. 58 Garage 59 win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $62 $0 +0%
Will the No. 61 Iron Lynx win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $25 $0 +0%
Will the No. 21 Vista AF Corse win the 2026 24 Hours of Le Mans? Jun 15 $83 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $134 2h
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $32 2h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $100 2h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY No 12¢ $10 3h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 3h
Will Jean Pierre Djaïwé be the next President of the Government of New BUY No 94¢ $20 4h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $6 5h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 5h
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $8 5h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $108 5h
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 4900+ by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $558 5h
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 5h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 6h
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $90 6h
Will Carlos Vila Nova win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential BUY Yes 52¢ $153 7h
Will Nito Abreu win the 2026 São Tomé and Príncipe presidential electi SELL Yes 27¢ $66 7h
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 8h
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 8h
Will "absi" be the most watched Kick streamer in June? BUY Yes 99¢ $207 12h
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 12h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $114 12h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $114 12h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $465 12h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 14h
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 14h
FDA approves Ionis' Olezarsen? BUY Yes 100¢ $80 14h
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $61 14h
Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $30 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,926.80 · official $9,926.07 (match) · 3500 history records