Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D1 0xd12f…e80d sports 1236 markets active 1h ago coverage 224d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,586 (-1%) realized −$1,585 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%737W / 497L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$225est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$919
7 days−$4,825
14 days−$4,219
30 days−$4,460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 50% −$2,830
other 45% +$613
crypto 2% −$350
world 2% +$559
economics 0% +$5
culture 0% +$4
politics 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 167 -41.5% -47.1% 24% 23% -53.2%
≤30d 316 -21.6% -29.0% 37% 36% -31.1%
≤90d 514 -1.8% -11.1% 47% 40% -7.7%
all 1234 -2.4% -11.7% 60% 40% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 40% -10.8%
10% -20.2% 29% -19.3%
15% -27.9% 22% -27.1%
20% -34.9% 18% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +12% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$59 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

224d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$1,585
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses737 / 497
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$225
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1234 / 1236
History coverage224d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1234 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 Under 72¢ 72¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 50¢ 50¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$29 -94%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $121 +$30 +25%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 17 $28 −$26 -94%
England leading at halftime? Jun 17 $115 +$33 +28%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco Jun 17 $75 +$82 +109%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $145 −$143 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $81 +$44 +55%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $172 −$171 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$72 +236%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -97%
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $65 −$63 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $49 +$15 +31%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $50 −$49 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 −$47 -99%
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $89 +$58 +65%
Spread: América FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $50 −$49 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $20 −$19 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 16 $170 −$169 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$11 -94%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $67 −$65 -98%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $75 −$74 -98%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $26 −$25 -98%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $70 −$69 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$19 -94%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $90 −$88 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $131 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -95%
Maccabi Tel-Aviv vs. Hapoel Tel-Aviv Jun 16 $50 −$49 -98%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Muchova/Williams vs Olmos/Routlif Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $49 −$48 -99%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Alejandro Tabilo Jun 16 $76 −$75 -99%
Nottingham Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 16 $101 +$102 +101%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $99 −$3 -3%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $84 +$92 +109%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $40 +$47 +119%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $100 −$98 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $101 −$100 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $176 −$174 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $100 +$35 +35%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $201 +$40 +20%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $18 −$18 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $78 −$77 -98%
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 15 $179 +$47 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $353 −$352 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $39 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $31 45m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 99¢ $151 49m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 98¢ $118 49m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 72¢ $100 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 82¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 79¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $18 1h
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 92¢ $148 1h
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $41 1h
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 71¢ $115 2h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Monaco 97¢ $88 2h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco SELL Monaco 78¢ $70 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $145 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 96¢ $125 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $81 5h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 89¢ $172 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $102 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $30 5h
Paris Basketball vs. Monaco BUY Monaco 41¢ $75 6h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $26 17h
Austria vs. Jordan: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $65 17h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 76¢ $49 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 26¢ $50 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 21h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $146 21h
Fortaleza EC vs. América FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $89 22h
Spread: América FC (-1.5) BUY Fortaleza EC 59¢ $50 22h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 42¢ $41 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.90 · official $135.90 (match) · 2735 history records