Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:37:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd130…02a3 crypto 173 markets active 4d ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5,803 (-26%) realized −$5,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate42%72W / 101L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$502
14 days−$891
30 days−$2,588
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$2,483
other 17% −$1,631
sports 15% −$2,022
tech 1% −$12
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -19.1% -26.8% 39% 39% -22.9%
≤30d 96 -10.4% -19.0% 48% 34% -28.8%
≤90d 98 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 34% -28.5%
all 173 -21.0% -28.5% 42% 34% -34.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 34% -34.4%
10% -35.4% 25% -40.7%
15% -41.6% 20% -46.4%
20% -47.3% 14% -51.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -29% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -31% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$86 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses72 / 101
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)173 / 173
History coverage635d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 173 Trades
no open positions (50 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $538 −$136 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $181 +$105 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $117 −$7 -6%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 13 $174 −$14 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 13 $202 +$29 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 13 $453 −$189 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 13 $204 −$204 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 13 $308 −$26 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $234 +$255 +109%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 12 $156 −$152 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $82 +$31 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 12 $119 −$91 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $340 −$208 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $153 +$69 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$61 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 11 $94 −$82 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $75 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 05 $241 −$220 -91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 05 $302 +$37 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 05 $102 −$20 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 05 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $102 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 05 $117 −$111 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 02 $112 −$111 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 31 $103 −$15 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 31 $103 −$25 -24%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 31 $1,163 −$93 -8%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1,977 −$1,230 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $51 −$48 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $102 −$35 -35%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $10 −$1 -9%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $31 +$13 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 26 $31 +$32 +103%
Solana Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $103 +$37 +36%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 26 $11 −$10 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 26 $8 −$4 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 23 $148 −$145 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 23 $88 +$60 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 23 $438 −$196 -45%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $154 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 23 $195 −$69 -36%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 23 $26 +$25 +95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 5¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $94 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $99 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $54 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $268 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 39¢ $18 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $11 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 4d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz SELL Alexander Bublik 25¢ $160 5d
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz BUY Alexander Bublik 26¢ $174 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Down 44¢ $85 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $12 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 649 history records