Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:09:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd131…2ee7 sports 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$25 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate80%24W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$18
other 7% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 53% -5.4%
≤30d 30 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 53% -5.4%
≤90d 30 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 53% -5.4%
all 30 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 53% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.7% 53% -5.4%
10% -12.1% 40% -14.5%
15% -20.5% 17% -22.8%
20% -28.3% 7% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +14% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$9 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$25
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses24 / 6
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions17
Markets (closed)30 / 47
History coverage5d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North America League Stage 1 Group Stage 100 Thieves 67¢ 70¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Messi 93¢ 94¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage CAG Osaka 93¢ 92¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage Dplus 90¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Stage All Gamers 91¢ 90¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Rebels Gaming 65¢ 62¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage 1 Group Stage Falcons Esport 75¢ 70¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
World Cup: Unbeaten Champion? Yes 81¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+7%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Group Stage Kingzone 57¢ 56¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs INTZ (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Group Stage FaZe Clan 87¢ 86¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Group Stage Ninjas in Pyjamas 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs Trippy Main Telecom (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North - Stage 1 Group Stage KINOTROPE gaming 75¢ 74¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Arcade Esports vs Chiefs Esports Club (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Oceania - Stage 1 Group Stage Chiefs Esports Club 93¢ 76¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-19%)
Will England reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 74¢ 78¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South America League Stage 1 Group Stage Team Liquid 80¢ 80¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 71¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? Yes 89¢ 58¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America Jun 26 $35 +$12 +35%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Jun 26 $48 +$6 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America League Stag Jun 26 $10 +$2 +24%
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le Jun 26 $20 +$2 +12%
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC Jun 26 $10 +$3 +34%
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League Jun 26 $5 +$2 +34%
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs FearX (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 26 $10 +$4 +38%
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro Jun 26 $10 +$1 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs Dplus (BO1) - Asia Pacific L Jun 26 $10 +$1 +7%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America Lea Jun 26 $22 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - Nor Jun 25 $35 −$5 -14%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 25 $10 $0 +4%
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North America Leag Jun 25 $100 +$6 +6%
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Wildcard Gaming (BO1) - North Am Jun 25 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Iraq concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stag Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
World Cup Goals H2H: Neymar vs. Vinicius Jr. Jun 25 $20 $0 +2%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 24 $20 +$9 +44%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Fnatic (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 24 $72 −$1 -1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag Jun 24 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3 +$2 +55%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Sta Jun 23 $10 +$3 +32%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 +$3 +250%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu Jun 23 $20 +$6 +29%
Rainbow Six Siege: Virtus.pro vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Rainbow Six Siege: Geekay Esports vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MEN Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Lea Jun 22 $20 +$3 +17%
Will Lionel Messi score 5+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 +$3 +27%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA League Jun 22 $20 +$6 +31%
Rainbow Six Siege: Twisted Minds vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Rainbow Six Siege: Dplus vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC North BUY Dplus 90¢ $20 1m
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs Trippy Main Telecom (BO1) - Asi BUY KINOTROPE gaming 75¢ $10 2m
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacif BUY CAG Osaka 93¢ $20 2m
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America SELL Spacestation Gaming 100¢ $47 12m
Rainbow Six Siege: Four Angry Men vs Kingzone (BO3) - CN League Stage BUY Kingzone 57¢ $10 15m
Rainbow Six Siege: All Gamers vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - CN League St BUY All Gamers 91¢ $20 15m
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Americ BUY 100 Thieves 67¢ $20 17m
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North SELL DarkZero Esports 100¢ $54 32m
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America BUY Spacestation Gaming 89¢ $25 46m
Rainbow Six Siege: Cloud9 vs Spacestation Gaming (BO1) - North America BUY Spacestation Gaming 51¢ $10 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le SELL Wildcard Gaming 100¢ $22 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North BUY DarkZero Esports 98¢ $38 1h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North BUY DarkZero Esports 65¢ $10 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: Wildcard Gaming vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le BUY Wildcard Gaming 89¢ $20 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: M80 vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America League Stag BUY M80 80¢ $10 8h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America Lea BUY 100 Thieves 93¢ $6 22h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Five Fears (BO1) - North America Lea BUY 100 Thieves 68¢ $11 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Can You Be My Enemy vs Dplus (BO1) - Asia Pacific L BUY Dplus 93¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Trippy Main Telecom vs FearX (BO1) - Asia Pacific L BUY FearX 72¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - Nor SELL DarkZero Esports 100¢ $36 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: KINOTROPE gaming vs RRX (BO1) - Asia Pacific League BUY KINOTROPE gaming 74¢ $5 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: SCARZ vs CAG Osaka (BO1) - Asia Pacific League APAC BUY CAG Osaka 74¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO1) - South BUY Ninjas in Pyjamas 79¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Team Liquid vs Black Dragons e-Sports (BO1) - South BUY Team Liquid 80¢ $5 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: FaZe Clan vs INTZ (BO1) - South America League Stag BUY FaZe Clan 87¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Arcade Esports vs Chiefs Esports Club (BO1) - Asia BUY Chiefs Esports Club 93¢ $10 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs Rebels Gaming (BO1) - Europe MENA Leagu BUY Rebels Gaming 65¢ $20 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: Shifters vs Falcons Esport (BO1) - Europe MENA Leag BUY Falcons Esport 75¢ $20 23h
Rainbow Six Siege: POZY vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - CN League Stage 1 Gro BUY EDward Gaming 94¢ $10 23h
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $215.12 · official $215.12 (match) · 83 history records