Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:22:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd131…2b07 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+1%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days+$15
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 39% −$10
world 38% +$15
politics 8% $0
sports 8% +$2
tech 3% +$1
finance 2% −$1
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.8% -11.1% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 25% -6.2%
≤90d 8 +7.4% -2.8% 50% 25% -6.2%
all 45 -0.2% -9.7% 36% 9% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 9% -8.9%
10% -18.3% 4% -17.6%
15% -26.2% 2% -25.6%
20% -33.5% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.47 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)45 / 46
History coverage257d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $54 $53 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $65 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 15 $175 −$3 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $27 +$12 +45%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $26 +$5 +21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $21 −$1 -5%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $52 +$1 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 31 $32 +$1 +3%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Dec 12 $13 −$3 -21%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $18 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Buccaneers vs. Rams Nov 25 $6 +$2 +35%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-11-23? Nov 25 $11 +$2 +15%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $6 $0 +0%
Will Valencia win on 2025-11-21? Nov 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $64 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $36 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-23? Nov 17 $3 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 16 $97 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Nov 05 $4 $0 -6%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 04 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 31 $14 $0 +1%
Will Curtis Sliwa win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $15 $0 -0%
Will Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Oct 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Yuichiro Tamaki be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 18 $6 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2600 in October? Oct 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $1 $0 +4%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Oct 17 $3 $0 +8%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 13 $4 $0 -5%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Villarreal win the 2025–26 La Liga? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 09 $23 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $54 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $23 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $36 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $17 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $48 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 63¢ $65 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 62¢ $30 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 16¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 16¢ $7 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 16¢ $8 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 16¢ $3 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $11 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $13 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 11¢ $16 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $20 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $6 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $26 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $18 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $35 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $54 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $40 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.05 · official $53.05 (match) · 213 history records