Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:49:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd133…ef27 other 51 markets active 0h ago coverage 47d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$4,363 (+6%) realized +$3,859 · open +$504
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,368per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$18,457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,615
7 days+$2,615
14 days+$2,615
30 days+$2,615
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 95% +$3,076
finance 3% −$320
sports 1% −$16
world 0% +$13
crypto 0% −$19
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -8.6% -17.3% 69% 25% -4.2%
≤30d 16 -8.6% -17.3% 69% 25% -4.2%
≤90d 31 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 19% -5.1%
all 31 -18.1% -25.9% 45% 19% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.9% 19% -5.1%
10% ← realistic here -33.0% 13% -14.2%
15% -39.5% 13% -22.5%
20% -45.4% 3% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 83% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$833) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -28% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$286 vs −$104 · ×2.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.27 per $1 lost it wins $2.27
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$18,457
Realized+$3,859
Unrealized+$504
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions20
Markets (closed)31 / 51
History coverage47d
Avg bet$1,368
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $16,128 $16,658 +$530 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $1,250 $1,239 −$12 (-1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? No 89¢ 88¢ $348 $347 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? No 97¢ 98¢ $49 $49 +$0 (+1%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? No 76¢ 75¢ $24 $23 −$0 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $13 $13 −$1 (-4%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $18 $10 −$9 (-48%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+19%)
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 40¢ 41¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+3%)
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? No 44¢ 44¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-76%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $33 +$2 +5%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,407 −$1,322 -94%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $23 −$12 -54%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $833 +$127 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 23 $1,105 +$11 +1%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $17 −$16 -94%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $21,607 +$399 +2%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$10 +50%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6 −$2 -34%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $35 +$45 +130%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16,935 +$1,430 +8%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $768 +$17 +2%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 23 $18 +$1 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $4,188 +$1,912 +46%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $967 +$23 +2%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $403 −$10 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 21 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 21 $10 −$9 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 21 $21 +$2 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 21 $9 −$4 -47%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 21 $2,290 −$311 -14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 21 $35 −$3 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 21 $30 −$1 -5%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $85 −$4 -4%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 21 $123 −$5 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $109 +$13 +12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 21 $8 −$1 -13%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 20 $26 +$11 +42%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 12 $27 −$26 -96%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $18 −$17 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 89¢ $342 2m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 44m
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 95¢ $33 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 10¢ $25 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $10 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 50m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $57 55m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 56m
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $246 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 69¢ $240 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? SELL No 95¢ $10 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $43 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $159 3h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $1,056 3h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 60¢ $1,117 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $525 5h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $12 5h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $16 8h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 21¢ $7 8h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $555 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $30 9h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $10 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 9h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $16 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $8 9h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $762 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,456.90 · official $18,456.89 (match) · 492 history records