Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:05:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
D1 0xd134…29fe crypto 37 markets active 4h ago coverage 104d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialistFresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$800 (+37%) realized +$807 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +57% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +42% what you keep after slip
Net edge+42%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%8W / 26L
Drawdown46%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$973now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$393
7 days+$393
14 days+$393
30 days+$393
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 49% +$565
crypto 32% +$93
other 19% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+42.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +1383.6% +1242.3% 100% 100% +1175.8%
≤30d 2 +1383.6% +1242.3% 100% 100% +1175.8%
≤90d 2 +1383.6% +1242.3% 100% 100% +1175.8%
all 34 +57.0% +42.1% 24% 24% +45.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +42.1% 24% +45.3%
10% +28.5% 24% +31.4%
15% +16.1% 24% +18.7%
20% +4.7% 21% +7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1310% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +57% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +75% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$152 vs −$21 · ×7.19 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.21 per $1 lost it wins $2.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$973
Realized+$807
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses8 / 26
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage104d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown46%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 58¢ $350 $347 −$3 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Saudi Arabia 51¢ 50¢ $230 $223 −$7 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $10 +$160 +1604%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $20 +$233 +1163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 12 $40 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Mar 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$139 +697%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$48 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Mar 12 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Mar 12 $40 −$20 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 12 $10 +$35 +352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Mar 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $38 −$37 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Mar 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 12 $20 +$28 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 12 $30 −$30 -99%
First Round Pool C: Australia vs. South Korea Mar 09 $300 +$117 +39%
First Round Pool C: South Korea vs. Chinese Taipei Mar 08 $150 +$458 +306%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 51¢ $233 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $354 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $405 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $25 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $15 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $25 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $10 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $11 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $159 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 100¢ $68 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $20 99d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $20 99d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $973.49 · official $973.50 (match) · 55 history records