Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:35:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd135…9c62 crypto 185 markets active 1h ago coverage 556d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$196 (-1%) realized −$199 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate73%134W / 49L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$172per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$352now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$19
7 days−$25
14 days−$11
30 days+$202
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$204
sports 5% −$2
other 1% +$3
politics 1% $0
world 0% +$5
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -1.1% -10.5% 83% 17% -11.4%
≤30d 29 +3.9% -6.0% 90% 10% -6.1%
≤90d 62 +1.9% -7.8% 85% 8% -8.7%
all 183 +1.0% -8.6% 73% 15% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 15% -10.1%
10% -17.4% 5% -18.7%
15% -25.4% 4% -26.6%
20% -32.7% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$30 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

556d coverage
Net worth$352
Realized−$199
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses134 / 49
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)183 / 185
History coverage556d
Avg bet$172
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 97¢ 97¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? No 95¢ 97¢ $149 $152 +$3 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? Jun 21 $460 +$12 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 21 $60 +$7 +12%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $202 −$50 -25%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Jun 18 $188 +$5 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? Jun 16 $118 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $126 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? Jun 14 $124 +$3 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 12 $98 −$24 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 11? Jun 12 $200 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 11 $142 +$6 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 11 $249 +$5 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 09 $209 +$21 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 08 $402 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 6? Jun 07 $251 +$10 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in June? Jun 05 $186 +$40 +22%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 4? Jun 05 $136 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $319 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in June? Jun 03 $160 +$16 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,500 in June? Jun 02 $171 +$132 +78%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May? Jun 01 $169 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 29 $168 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on May 27? May 28 $166 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on May 26? May 27 $165 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 26 $213 −$6 -3%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 25? May 26 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 on May 24? May 25 $117 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 on May 24? May 25 $50 +$2 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 May 18-24? May 24 $159 +$7 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 18-24? May 19 $158 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 May 11-17? May 18 $17 $0 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 11-17? May 18 $119 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in May? May 16 $112 +$7 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 May 11-17? May 16 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May? May 13 $146 −$59 -41%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 27-May 3? May 04 $70 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 1? May 02 $200 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in April? May 01 $405 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $79,000 on April 28? Apr 29 $201 +$2 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 27 $214 −$12 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April? Apr 26 $2 $0 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $210 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in April? Apr 24 $489 −$109 -22%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 April 20-26? Apr 21 $114 −$4 -3%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 April 13-19? Apr 20 $136 +$19 +14%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 15 $266 −$6 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $66,000 April 13-19? Apr 14 $122 +$9 +7%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 13 $121 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 07 $217 +$3 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 March 30-April 5? Apr 06 $83 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $83 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 97¢ $200 8h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $282 21h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 95¢ $66 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? SELL No 98¢ $67 25h
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $7 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $187 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 93¢ $80 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 41¢ $41 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? SELL No 97¢ $193 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 88¢ $60 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $188 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? SELL Yes 71¢ $70 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? SELL No 95¢ $190 5d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $118 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $21 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $9 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $50 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $8 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 94¢ $6 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $92 6d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 82¢ $115 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 70¢ $70 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? SELL No 83¢ $132 7d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? BUY No 99¢ $126 7d
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $124 8d
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June? BUY No 89¢ $178 8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? SELL Yes 37¢ $74 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $351.86 · official $351.86 (match) · 664 history records