Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:57:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd139…bab0 crypto 26 markets active 2h ago coverage 594d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+0%) realized +$15 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate96%24W / 1L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$953per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$8,664now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 70% −$4
politics 30% +$10
tech 0% $0
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
culture 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 1 -0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 8 +2.8% -7.0% 88% 0% -9.5%
all 25 +7.3% -2.9% 96% 20% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.9% 20% -9.5%
10% -12.2% 4% -18.1%
15% -20.7% 4% -26.0%
20% -28.5% 4% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 83% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×16.56 per $1 lost it wins $16.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

594d coverage
Net worth$8,664
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses24 / 1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)25 / 26
History coverage594d
Avg bet$953
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $8,661 $8,657 −$4 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 23 $8,702 −$1 -0%
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr Apr 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Rob Jetten become the next Prime Minister of the Netherlands? Apr 27 $1 $0 +10%
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? Apr 27 $2 $0 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua Apr 27 $4 $0 +3%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Apr 27 $4 $0 +8%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jan 07 $1 $0 +2%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jan 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Jan 07 $1 $0 +6%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 08 $1 $0 +6%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 08 $1 $0 +12%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on September 24? Nov 04 $2 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in September? Nov 04 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin above $112K on August 20? Sep 24 $1 $0 +12%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 24 $3 $0 +2%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in Assists? Aug 19 $1 $0 +5%
Will Liverpool finish in the top 4 of EPL? Aug 19 $2 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Aug 19 $1 $0 +14%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder get the #1 seed in 2025 NBA Western Con Aug 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Pam Bondi be Trump's Attorney General? Mar 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's Defense Secretary? Mar 13 $1 $0 +18%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Dec 17 $7,374 +$8 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Dec 17 $2 +$2 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $8,662 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1,990 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $48 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $67 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $22 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $1 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $3 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $15 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $7 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $62 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $8 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $119 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $6,309 11h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $8,702 13h
Will Xiaomi have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 57d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Contr BUY No 100¢ $3 57d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 57d
Will Solana dip to $70 in January? BUY No 99¢ $2 167d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 93¢ $4 167d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Janua BUY Yes 97¢ $4 167d
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game BUY Yes 94¢ $1 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,664.03 · official $8,664.03 (match) · 192 history records