Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd13c…02f4 other 524 markets active 1h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$4,533 (+5%) realized +$4,524 · open +$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate95%494W / 25L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$42
7 days+$42
14 days+$42
30 days+$698
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$302
finance 29% +$1,645
tech 17% +$2,325
sports 4% +$63
world 0% +$84
crypto 0% +$4
weather 0% +$12
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-4.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 4% -8.8%
≤30d 68 +5.3% -4.8% 97% 19% -4.0%
≤90d 381 +4.1% -5.8% 96% 11% -4.2%
all 519 +5.1% -4.9% 95% 13% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.9% 13% -4.8%
10% -14.0% 7% -14.0%
15% -22.3% 5% -22.3%
20% -29.9% 4% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$106 · ×0.13 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.81 per $1 lost it wins $2.81
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$4,524
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses494 / 25
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)519 / 524
History coverage157d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 519 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? No 75¢ 81¢ $150 $162 +$12 (+8%)
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 15 – Jun 19? Yes 98¢ 90¢ $49 $45 −$4 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+31%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400? Jun 18 $168 +$2 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $667 +$3 +0%
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 15 above $1,000? Jun 18 $24 $0 +2%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $537 +$3 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $320 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $198 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $3.50? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $135? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $125? Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $192 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $137? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $5.50? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $136? Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of June 15 Jun 18 $218 +$2 +1%
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $884 +$3 +0%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $118 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $372 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $765 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $87 +$13 +14%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $67.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $208 +$2 +1%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $198 +$2 +1%
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $20 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $122 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $278 +$2 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? Jun 18 $278 +$2 +1%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $365 on June 17? Jun 17 $61 $0 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in June? Jun 01 $302 +$37 +12%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $7,600 (HIGH) in December? Jun 01 $129 +$15 +11%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $220 in May? May 30 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $551 +$207 +38%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 Week of May 25 2026? May 30 $196 +$4 +2%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $1,005 +$10 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $138 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $9 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $140 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $142 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $146 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $7 $0 +1%
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $760 on May 29? May 29 $107 +$2 +2%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $435 in May? May 29 $198 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 29 $874 +$118 +14%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 29 $233 +$66 +28%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on May 28? May 28 $44 +$2 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 in May? May 26 $282 +$18 +6%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $750 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $22 +$3 +13%
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $236 +$14 +6%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $184 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $186 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $185 Week of May 25 2026? May 26 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $198 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 33m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $197 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 33m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $196 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 33m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $195 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 33m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $449 33m
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $320 34m
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $137? BUY No 100¢ $29 39m
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $400? BUY Yes 99¢ $168 44m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 51m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $122 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $80 51m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $672 51m
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $118 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 100¢ $372 52m
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $125? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $135? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of June 15 above $136? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $304 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 1h
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (LOW) $560 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $5.50? BUY No 99¢ $20 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 15 above $3.50? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 1h
Will Micron (MU) close at >$1,080 on the final day of trading of the w BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will Micron (MU) finish week of June 15 above $1,000? BUY Yes 98¢ $24 1h
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $760 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 98¢ $196 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (LOW) $67.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $208 1h
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $92.50 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $124 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $122 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $198 1h
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (LOW) $120 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $211 1h
Will Opendoor Technologies Inc. (OPEN) hit (LOW) $3.75 Week of June 15 BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $194 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (LOW) $193 Week of June 15 2026? BUY No 99¢ $218 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.53 · official $214.53 (match) · 1953 history records