Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd13c…17c0 other 23 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+5%) realized +$16 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%3W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day7.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit26%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% +$75
sports 27% −$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-29.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -21.7% -29.2% 15% 10% +5.4%
≤30d 20 -21.7% -29.2% 15% 10% +5.4%
≤90d 20 -21.7% -29.2% 15% 10% +5.4%
all 20 -21.7% -29.2% 15% 10% +5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.2% 10% +5.4%
10% -36.0% 10% -4.7%
15% -42.1% 10% -13.9%
20% -47.8% 10% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +16% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +22% → late -65% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$7 · ×7.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.3 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses3 / 17
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)20 / 23
History coverage4d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day7.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit26%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 32¢ $35 $37 +$2 (+5%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $30 $25 −$5 (-16%)
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+37%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $49 +$34 +69%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $10 −$2 -21%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $29 +$1 +3%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 19 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 +$115 +1115%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $18 −$9 -50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 35m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 59m
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 59m
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 99¢ $47 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? SELL Yes 6¢ $8 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 87¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? SELL Yes 17¢ $36 2h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 19¢ $29 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $30 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $29 5h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 20h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 20h
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $10 20h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 20h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $10 27h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 29h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 2 Qatar? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 30h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 30h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 31h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 47h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $4 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.69 · official $68.69 (match) · 35 history records