Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:00:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd140…2a6b crypto 417 markets active 2h ago coverage 632d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$82 (-1%) realized −$71 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate82%332W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% +$33
other 6% −$102
politics 5% −$6
economics 2% −$2
world 1% −$24
weather 1% −$1
tech 0% −$1
culture 0% $0
sports 0% +$16
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +90.9% +72.7% 59% 35% -8.4%
≤30d 42 +33.5% +20.8% 79% 19% -9.4%
≤90d 103 +11.9% +1.3% 89% 8% -9.4%
all 406 -0.2% -9.7% 82% 16% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 16% -10.0%
10% -18.3% 11% -18.6%
15% -26.2% 9% -26.5%
20% -33.5% 6% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

632d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$71
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses332 / 74
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions11
Markets (closed)406 / 417
History coverage632d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 406 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 50¢ 62¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 50¢ 38¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-24%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 34¢ 26¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 94¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Opensea FDV above $5B one day after launch? Yes 11¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-56%)
Base FDV above $10B one day after launch? Yes 39¢ 18¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-55%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-66%)
MagicBlock FDV above $10M one day after launch? Yes 85¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Abstract FDV above $1B one day after launch? Yes 47¢ 22¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +12%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $3 +$3 +86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $35 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$6 +614%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1396%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $30 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +42%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 3? Jun 03 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 2? Jun 02 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 30? May 30 $50 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on May 29? May 29 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 27? May 27 $43 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 26? May 26 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 25? May 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 24? May 24 $61 $0 +0%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 23? May 23 $42 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on May 21? May 22 $41 $0 +0%
Nexus FDV above $200M one day after launch? May 21 $1 $0 +19%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on May 20? May 20 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 19 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 17? May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on May 15? May 15 $50 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 14? May 14 $70 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86,000 and $88,000 on May 13? May 13 $45 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on May 12? May 12 $35 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11? May 11 $37 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 53¢ $3 11h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 34¢ $5 18h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $5 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $35 38h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 5d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 57¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $35 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $1 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $40 9d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $42 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $35 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $33 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $40 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $81.51 · official $81.51 (match) · 867 history records