Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:03:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd141…38a1 sports 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$239 (-8%) realized −$239 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate52%47W / 44L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$138
14 days−$133
30 days−$125
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$114
other 12% −$158
crypto 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +40.3% +26.9% 50% 50% -50.3%
≤30d 15 +18.3% +7.1% 47% 47% -30.6%
≤90d 91 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 44% -18.4%
all 91 -6.3% -15.2% 52% 44% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 44% -18.4%
10% -23.3% 36% -26.2%
15% -30.7% 27% -33.4%
20% -37.5% 20% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -27% → late +14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$22 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$239
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses47 / 44
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage66d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $241 −$164 -68%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$15 +287%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $30 +$35 +114%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 05 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $31 +$22 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $20 −$20 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $46 −$3 -7%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 May 22 $30 −$15 -49%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) May 21 $10 +$15 +148%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $10 +$2 +21%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20? May 19 $5 −$5 -95%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $10 +$20 +197%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 May 19 $10 −$8 -81%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons: O/U 198.5 May 18 $50 +$18 +36%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $21 +$6 +27%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $20 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $15 −$2 -14%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 14 $5 +$6 +114%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $10 −$10 -97%
CA Osasuna vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 12 $20 −$2 -12%
Southampton FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 2.5 May 12 $20 −$11 -53%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $100 −$9 -9%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $20 +$1 +5%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $15 −$5 -33%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $30 +$6 +20%
Spread: Cavaliers (-4.5) May 09 $10 −$1 -14%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 09 $5 +$13 +244%
Elche CF vs. Deportivo Alavés: O/U 2.5 May 09 $10 +$4 +38%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $10 −$1 -5%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $10 +$9 +93%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $50 +$10 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-10.5) May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $20 +$1 +3%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $100 +$14 +14%
Spread: Thunder (-14.5) May 06 $10 −$1 -6%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $20 +$7 +36%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $26 +$64 +250%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $32 −$32 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $25 +$19 +74%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $30 +$18 +59%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves May 01 $4 +$2 +42%
Rockets vs. Lakers May 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $1 $0 -41%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 26 $40 +$26 +65%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 26 $50 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 30¢ $77 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $241 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $20 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 5d
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 5d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $72 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $50 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $30 11d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $30 12d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 42¢ $22 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Thunder 43¢ $30 17d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 24¢ $31 17d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 24¢ $20 19d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $3 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 15¢ $5 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 38¢ $10 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs SELL Thunder 44¢ $39 25d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 33¢ $31 25d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 SELL Over 37¢ $15 26d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 207.5 BUY Over 71¢ $30 27d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) SELL Spurs 74¢ $25 27d
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) BUY Spurs 29¢ $10 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 34¢ $12 27d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 27¢ $10 27d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 SELL Over 11¢ $2 29d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $10 30d
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 30d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 24¢ $11 30d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $20 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 236 history records