Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:38:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd141…205c
crypto · 1437 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$3,848 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$3,835 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$11
Realized−$3,835
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses626 / 810
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1436 / 1437
Avg bet$23
Trades / day33.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 1436 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$225
7 days−$575
14 days−$552
30 days−$1,470
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $25 $11 −$14 (-55%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 34¢ 0¢ $34 $0 −$34 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Up 18¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 36¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 27¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Down 37¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Wuning 2: Li Tu vs Charles Broom Charles Broom 34¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Ethan Quinn Ethan Quinn 21¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Cordoba: Miguel Tobon vs Andrea Collarini Andrea Collarini 33¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Up 17¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Down 42¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 27¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 12 $33 −$31 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 12 $29 −$28 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 12 $27 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$18 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 11 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$16 +103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 11 $16 +$29 +186%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $25 −$24 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$9 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $16 +$14 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 10 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 10 $24 +$42 +174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 10 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $31 +$31 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $43 +$38 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $62 −$60 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$24 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$35 +170%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 10 $23 +$21 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 10 $22 −$21 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 09 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 09 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $31 +$29 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $33 −$32 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$28 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 09 $21 +$16 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 09 $20 −$19 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 08 $18 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 08 $36 −$35 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 94% −$3,413
sports 6% −$426
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $52 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 29¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $44 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 -23.8% -31.1% 39% 39% -30.6%
≤30d 492 -11.9% -20.3% 41% 41% -21.7%
≤90d 1436 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 43% -20.0%
all 1436 -10.4% -18.9% 44% 43% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 43% -20.0%
10% ← realistic here -26.7% 41% -27.7%
15% -33.8% 38% -34.7%
20% -40.3% 35% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.16 · official $11.16 (match) · 3500 history records