Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:35:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd142…5c9e sports 321 markets active 2h ago coverage 1199d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,246 (-13%) realized −$8,287 · open +$41
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%135W / 174L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$204per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$245est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,532now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$388
7 days+$687
14 days+$901
30 days+$497
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$6,549
other 21% −$2,146
world 5% +$618
economics 2% +$372
politics 1% −$291
culture 1% −$259
crypto 1% +$156
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 +32.2% +19.6% 71% 71% +16.7%
≤30d 40 +10.9% +0.4% 55% 55% -4.6%
≤90d 107 -12.3% -20.6% 47% 47% -18.8%
all 309 -13.6% -21.8% 44% 43% -21.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 43% -21.3%
10% -29.3% 42% -28.8%
15% -36.1% 37% -35.7%
20% -42.4% 29% -42.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -14% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$160 vs −$171 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1199d coverage
Net worth$2,532
Realized−$8,287
Unrealized+$41
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses135 / 174
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$245
Open positions9
Markets (closed)309 / 321
History coverage1199d
Avg bet$204
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 309 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 22¢ $511 $636 +$125 (+24%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ $256 $444 +$188 (+73%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 13¢ $496 $391 −$106 (-21%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $333 $302 −$30 (-9%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $279 $229 −$51 (-18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $268 $167 −$102 (-38%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $113 $167 +$54 (+47%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $154 $134 −$20 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $63 −$17 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 153 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $204 +$143 +70%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $49 +$65 +134%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U Jun 25 $54 +$104 +193%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $151 +$75 +50%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $202 +$154 +76%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 23 $105 +$51 +49%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 23 $121 −$120 -99%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $154 −$152 -99%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $82 −$47 -57%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $302 +$93 +31%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $99 +$78 +79%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $160 +$85 +53%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner Jun 21 $214 +$89 +41%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $150 +$124 +82%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $111 −$109 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $107 −$105 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $109 +$159 +145%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $192 −$189 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner Jun 17 $152 +$189 +125%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $309 −$304 -99%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $152 +$126 +83%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $202 +$160 +79%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $72 −$13 -18%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $51 −$43 -84%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $329 +$165 +50%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $287 −$178 -62%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $69 +$250 +365%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $242 +$100 +41%
Will MrBeast hit 129 billion views by June 30? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +100%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $1,001 +$862 +86%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $401 −$395 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 06 $349 −$341 -98%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $374 −$368 -98%
Will MrBeast hit 500 million subscribers by June 30? Jun 01 $99 +$32 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $369 −$365 -99%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 29 $201 −$60 -30%
LoL: NRG Esports vs Winthrop University - Game 3 Winner May 28 $95 −$93 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 28 $1,670 +$374 +22%
LoL: Supernova vs Winthrop University (BO5) - North American Challenge May 27 $149 −$148 -99%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $72 −$70 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $249 +$124 +50%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 25 $244 +$103 +42%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs G2 Esports - Game 1 Winner May 23 $280 −$277 -99%
Will MrBeast hit 494 million subscribers by June 30? May 23 $264 +$87 +33%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming - Game 1 Winner May 22 $46 −$45 -97%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Weibo Gaming (BO5) - Esports World Cup China Qualifi May 22 $23 −$22 -99%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 1 Winner May 22 $91 −$89 -98%
LoL: UCAM Esports Club vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix (BO3) - LES Regular Seas May 22 $139 +$100 +72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 42¢ $49 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $204 12h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Spain: 2nd Half O/U 1.5 AND BUY 29¢ $81 12h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $151 32h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U BUY 34¢ $54 32h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $202 2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 AND Morocco vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY 57¢ $130 2d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 67¢ $101 3d
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 67¢ $121 3d
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals BUY No 59¢ $4 3d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $154 3d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $35 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $99 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 76¢ $302 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $303 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 3 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 70¢ $214 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $274 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 65¢ $160 5d
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 54¢ $150 5d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Ecuador 39¢ $111 6d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 42¢ $107 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 61¢ $268 6d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 24¢ $109 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $192 9d
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster Challengers 44¢ $152 9d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 53¢ $162 11d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $147 11d
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY LYON 54¢ $152 12d
Spread: Germany (-4.5) SELL Germany 30¢ $60 12d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 55¢ $202 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,532.47 · official $2,535.42 (match) · 780 history records