Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T03:16:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd142…3a48 crypto 428 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1937 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$4,813 (+9%) realized +$4,813 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -50% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -62% what you keep after slip
Net edge-62%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate24%212W / 674L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day1936.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,569
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1937 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-55.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 886 -50.4% -55.1% 24% 20% -17.2%
≤30d 886 -50.4% -55.1% 24% 20% -17.2%
≤90d 886 -50.4% -55.1% 24% 20% -17.2%
all 886 -50.4% -55.1% 24% 20% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1936.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -55.1% 20% -17.2%
10% ← realistic here -59.4% 15% -25.2%
15% -63.3% 11% -32.4%
20% -66.9% 9% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -50% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -97% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$26 · ×2.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized+$4,813
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses212 / 674
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)886 / 428
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$126
Trades / day1936.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 886 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 29 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 29 $0 +$1 +669%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +317%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 +133%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 29 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 29 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 29 $156 −$156 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 29 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 29 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 29 $56 −$56 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 29 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 29 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $9 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $9 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $21 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $7 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $32 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $29 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $50 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $4 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $126 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $6 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $3 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $10 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $90 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $11 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $38 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $54 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $34 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $54 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $58 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $8 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $31 44m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.37 · official $57.12 · 3500 history records