Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T19:39:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd145…365f
other · 102 markets active 1h ago
0.5score
−$10 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$12 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses9 / 93
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)102 / 102
History coverage109d
Avg bet$279
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 0 History 102 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Hornets vs. Nets Nets 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Clippers Raptors 39¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Rockets vs. Bulls Rockets 78¢ 0¢ $22 $0 −$22 (-100%)
Wizards vs. Warriors Wizards 13¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jun 14 $23 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 19 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,224 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 06 $445 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 05 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? May 05 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 04 $201 $0 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $272 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $199 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 03 $531 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 03 $220 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $753 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $282 $0 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? May 01 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $438 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $251 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $256 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 27 $213 $0 -0%
Will Michael Younger win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $273 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 27 $193 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $256 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $278 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $234 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $203 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $256 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 21 $232 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $207 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $247 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 19 $242 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $205 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 18 $199 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $271 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $247 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 17 $272 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 17 $205 $0 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $260 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 16 $259 $0 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $484 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 15 $445 $0 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $459 $0 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $244 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $241 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 15 $246 $0 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $195 $0 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $225 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 14 $246 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $231 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $249 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 59% −$17
politics 29% −$10
economics 3% −$1
world 3% −$1
sports 2% +$17
crypto 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina SELL No 99¢ $23 1h
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina BUY No 99¢ $23 3d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $128 25d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $128 29d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $189 38d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $189 38d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $227 39d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $227 39d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $191 40d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $191 40d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $276 40d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $277 41d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $201 41d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $201 41d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $272 41d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $272 42d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $199 42d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $199 42d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $269 42d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $269 42d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $220 42d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $220 43d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $229 43d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $229 43d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $282 43d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $282 43d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $224 44d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $224 44d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $204 44d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $204 44d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 95 -3.6% -12.8% 4% 2% -9.7%
all 102 -0.3% -9.8% 9% 6% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 6% -9.6%
10% -18.4% 4% -18.2%
15% -26.3% 3% -26.1%
20% -33.5% 2% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 295 history records