Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:06:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd146…e7f0 sports 567 markets active 1h ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$25 (-0%) realized +$46 · open −$71
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate78%438W / 126L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$221per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$14
7 days−$38
14 days−$236
30 days−$226
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% +$51
sports 4% −$236
tech 3% +$2
weather 2% −$13
crypto 2% +$2
culture 2% $0
politics 0% +$1
finance 0% −$2
world 0% +$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 70 +34.6% +21.8% 49% 40% -12.5%
≤30d 151 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 34% -15.5%
≤90d 274 +6.0% -4.1% 73% 22% -10.5%
all 564 +3.2% -6.6% 78% 11% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.6% 11% -9.6%
10% -15.6% 8% -18.3%
15% -23.7% 7% -26.2%
20% -31.2% 5% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late +6% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$13 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$46
Unrealized−$71
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses438 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions3
Markets (closed)564 / 567
History coverage191d
Avg bet$221
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 564 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 76¢ $48 $61 +$13 (+28%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 38¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner Rune Eaters 46¢ $46 $0 −$46 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $45 −$42 -93%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Jun 21 $50 +$5 +10%
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 21 $91 +$32 +35%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $49 +$3 +7%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 20 $48 +$32 +67%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $85 −$85 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $50 +$25 +49%
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $46 +$23 +49%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $48 −$29 -60%
Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $8 −$2 -22%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $48 +$44 +92%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $51 +$29 +56%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $50 +$12 +24%
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episo Jun 20 $49 +$35 +71%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol Jun 20 $50 +$1 +3%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $49 +$10 +21%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $50 −$27 -53%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $99 +$62 +63%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $0 $0 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Racing 92 win? Jun 19 $51 +$16 +32%
Will Leinster win? Jun 19 $50 $0 +1%
ITF Tauste: Anna Kubareva vs Elena Milovanovic Jun 19 $19 +$70 +374%
United States vs. Australia: Australia O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 19 $50 −$50 -100%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $44 −$44 -100%
Dart/Lumsden vs. Sutjiadi/Tjen: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $3 +$95 +3217%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Errani/Melichar vs Olmos/Routliff Jun 19 $50 $0 +0%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $9 −$9 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Jun 19 $48 +$7 +14%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -99%
Mees Rottgering vs. Kyrian Jacquet: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $50 −$4 -8%
Royan: Leo Raquillet vs Pavel Kotov Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 −$6 -64%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$13 -29%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $42 −$40 -96%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $60 −$43 -72%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $48 +$17 +36%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $48 +$34 +70%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $9 +$36 +388%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 38¢ $39 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports $3 1h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 14¢ $45 1h
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Rune Eaters - Game 2 Winner BUY Rune Eaters 46¢ $47 1h
Dota 2: Enjoy vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 14¢ $15 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner SELL Dplus KIA Challengers 100¢ $55 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 90¢ $50 5h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner SELL T1 Academy 100¢ $123 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $23 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 94¢ $26 6h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 57¢ $41 6h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $48 7h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 93¢ $49 15h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Washington Nationals 59¢ $48 18h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner SELL Los Angeles Thieves 100¢ $69 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $19 18h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $48 18h
Call of Duty: Vancouver Surge vs Los Angeles Thieves - Game 2 Winner BUY Los Angeles Thieves 66¢ $46 19h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 51¢ $36 19h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY No 66¢ $50 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 59¢ $50 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 34¢ $50 20h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 23h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 62¢ $9 26h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 63¢ $42 26h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 51¢ $48 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 80¢ $30 26h
Set 2 Winner: Sabalenka vs Pegula BUY Pegula 69¢ $14 26h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula BUY Jessica Pegula 80¢ $20 26h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Federico Bondiol BUY Adam Walton 97¢ $50 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.81 · official $60.81 (match) · 1509 history records