Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd147…ecbd sports 776 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 96d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,225 (-8%) realized −$5,225 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate45%349W / 427L
Whale WR17%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$85per market
Trades / day32.0pace
Fees−$875est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$1,556
30 days−$2,400
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$1,805
other 35% −$2,279
crypto 4% +$31
world 0% −$159
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -11.7% -20.1% 80% 20% -11.0%
≤30d 353 -1.3% -10.7% 46% 29% -16.9%
≤90d 744 -2.2% -11.5% 45% 28% -15.5%
all 776 -2.4% -11.7% 45% 29% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 29% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 25% -23.4%
15% -27.9% 21% -30.8%
20% -34.9% 18% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 17% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$52 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5,225
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses349 / 427
Whale WR (big bets)17%
Est. fees paid−$875
Open positions0
Markets (closed)776 / 776
History coverage96d ⚠
Avg bet$85
Trades / day32.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 776 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $195 +$5 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $189 +$11 +6%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $240 +$60 +25%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $197 +$3 +1%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 −$94 -93%
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $190 −$190 -100%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $285 −$285 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $214 −$114 -53%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $358 −$303 -85%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $288 −$169 -59%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 10 $121 +$5 +4%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $126 −$77 -61%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $392 +$8 +2%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $167 +$332 +199%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $369 −$305 -82%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $289 −$99 -34%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-1.5) Jun 09 $239 +$261 +109%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $210 −$146 -69%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $216 +$91 +42%
Hungary vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 3.5 Jun 09 $97 −$32 -32%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $79 −$37 -47%
Spread: Armenia (-2.5) Jun 09 $56 +$4 +7%
Tajikistan vs. India: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $207 −$16 -8%
Armenia vs. Moldova: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $265 −$116 -44%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $176 +$224 +127%
Indonesia vs. Mozambique: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $200 −$160 -80%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $208 −$140 -67%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $93 −$93 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 1.5 Jun 09 $164 −$164 -100%
Cambodia vs. Hong Kong SAR: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $293 −$126 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 09 $10 $0 +2%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $205 +$120 +58%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $178 +$22 +12%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 3.5 Jun 08 $194 −$71 -36%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $7 −$2 -32%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $101 −$12 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 08 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 08 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 08 $10 +$4 +36%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $104 +$96 +92%
Ecuador vs. Guatemala: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $100 +$5 +5%
Morocco vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $108 −$65 -60%
Greece vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $86 −$59 -68%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 1.5 Jun 07 $90 +$1 +1%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $138 −$73 -53%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $9 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $4 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 43¢ $73 1h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Tunisia 55¢ $111 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 2¢ $7 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 25¢ $50 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 72¢ $123 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 71¢ $21 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $56 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $12 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $1 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $2 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $43 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $45 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $1 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $20 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $14 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 42¢ $3 2h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 57¢ $115 2h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 38¢ $114 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 33¢ $101 2h
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $58 11d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $91 11d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $12 11d
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $118 11d
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $183 11d
Argentina vs. Iceland: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 38¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records