Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:08:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd14a…908b sports 351 markets active 0h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$99 (-6%) realized −$99 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate31%110W / 241L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day16.8pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$29
14 days−$35
30 days−$85
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% −$143
other 7% −$19
crypto 6% −$31
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 -44.9% -50.1% 23% 16% -28.1%
≤30d 159 -14.7% -22.8% 33% 23% -17.6%
≤90d 351 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 25% -20.2%
all 351 -20.0% -27.6% 31% 25% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.6% 25% -20.2%
10% -34.5% 21% -27.8%
15% -40.9% 18% -34.8%
20% -46.7% 16% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$99
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses110 / 241
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)351 / 351
History coverage63d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day16.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 351 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $3 −$1 -17%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $4 −$1 -25%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 15 $3 −$1 -45%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3 −$1 -29%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Vaqueros de Bayamon vs. Atleticos de San German Jun 15 $3 −$3 -94%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -50%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $6 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $31 −$4 -14%
Lyon: Marco Trungelliti vs Daniel Galan Jun 11 $1 −$1 -72%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Miguel Damas Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $10 +$6 +62%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 11 $10 −$6 -63%
Libema Open (Doubles): Balaji/Ram vs Bergs/Rinderknech Jun 10 $1 $0 -36%
Modena: Noemi Basiletti vs Varvara Lepchenko Jun 09 $1 $0 +17%
Tucuman: Eduardo Ribeiro vs Santiago De La Fuente Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Ilkley: Tristan Schoolkate vs Paul Jubb Jun 09 $1 $0 -31%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Christopher O'Connell Jun 09 $2 +$1 +37%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $5 −$4 -76%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 222.5 Jun 09 $10 +$3 +26%
HSBC Championships: Harriet Dart vs Liudmila Samsonova Jun 08 $12 $0 -0%
HSBC Championships: Karolina Pliskova vs McCartney Kessler Jun 08 $18 −$5 -27%
HSBC Championships: Qinwen Zheng vs Jaqueline Cristian Jun 08 $6 $0 -3%
Ilkley: Linda Klimovicova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 08 $2 $0 +3%
Modena: Jeline Vandromme vs Angela Fita Boluda Jun 08 $2 $0 -1%
Lyon: Lorenzo Giustino vs Daniel Rincon Jun 08 $1 −$1 -91%
Lyon: Laslo Djere vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 08 $1 +$1 +51%
Libema Open: Marin Cilic vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Makarska: Darja Semenistaja vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 07 $12 −$1 -7%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Hanyu Guo vs Maddison Inglis Jun 07 $7 −$6 -84%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -73%
Tyler: Adam Walton vs Andre Ilagan Jun 07 $1 $0 -5%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $19 +$2 +10%
Spread: Denmark (-2.5) Jun 07 $1 +$2 +243%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $6 $0 +6%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $18 +$4 +19%
Birmingham: Arthur Fery vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Will Bryce Mitchell win by KO or TKO? Jun 07 $1 −$1 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 07 $5 −$5 -98%
Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino Jun 06 $34 −$1 -4%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 06 $10 +$1 +6%
Libema Open, Qualification: Britt Du Pree vs Joanna Garland Jun 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Perugia: Timofey Skatov vs Henrique Rocha Jun 06 $21 +$1 +7%
Makarska: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Maria Timofeeva Jun 06 $6 +$2 +29%
Foggia: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Darya Astakhova Jun 06 $1 $0 -34%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Petr Bar Biryukov Jun 06 $26 +$6 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje $0 19m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 40¢ $1 24m
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 32¢ $1 25m
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 43¢ $1 1h
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL Yes $0 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 49¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 20¢ $1 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis $0 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 16¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 14¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 25¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 22¢ $1 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 22¢ $2 3h
Vaqueros de Bayamon vs. Atleticos de San German SELL Atleticos de San German $0 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) SELL Kyle Daukaus 13¢ $1 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Kyle Daukaus 25¢ $2 3h
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 43¢ $3 4h
Vaqueros de Bayamon vs. Atleticos de San German BUY Atleticos de San German 32¢ $3 5h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $2 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 13¢ $1 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $1 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $13 25h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $4 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1103 history records