Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd14a…53d7 sports 166 markets active 4d ago coverage 258d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,977 (-3%) realized −$1,992 · open +$15
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate62%96W / 60L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$462per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$46est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$513now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2,219
14 days−$2,216
30 days−$2,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 38% +$603
economics 26% −$34
politics 14% +$18
other 13% +$101
crypto 9% −$2,787
culture 0% −$4
world 0% +$5
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -33.6% -39.9% 36% 36% -47.3%
≤30d 13 -24.0% -31.2% 46% 38% -45.8%
≤90d 60 -10.7% -19.2% 55% 38% -14.1%
all 156 -5.2% -14.2% 62% 46% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 46% -12.0%
10% -22.4% 37% -20.5%
15% -29.9% 29% -28.1%
20% -36.8% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$176 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

258d coverage
Net worth$513
Realized−$1,992
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses96 / 60
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$46
Open positions10
Markets (closed)156 / 166
History coverage258d
Avg bet$462
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 98¢ 98¢ $195 $197 +$2 (+1%)
Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026 No 74¢ 80¢ $148 $161 +$13 (+9%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 90¢ $28 $27 −$1 (-3%)
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 70¢ 96¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+38%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 96¢ 76¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 35 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $501 +$99 +20%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1,545 −$45 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $700 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $251 −$242 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 11 $722 −$700 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 11 $414 −$400 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 11 $310 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 11 $523 −$83 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 11 $104 +$96 +93%
Spread: Knicks (-14.5) Jun 11 $179 +$31 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 11 $126 +$24 +19%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 06 $197 +$3 +2%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 29 $6 +$4 +56%
Will SpaceX's market cap be greater than $2.0T at market close on IPO May 18 $15 −$9 -62%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +13%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 $0 +11%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +3%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $4 $0 +11%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +10%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 18 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $886 +$14 +2%
Heat vs. Hornets: O/U 227.5 Apr 20 $22 +$18 +85%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 14 $207 +$93 +45%
Pacers vs. Nets: O/U 223.5 Apr 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5) Apr 09 $11 +$9 +86%
Rockets vs. Warriors: O/U 223.5 Apr 06 $2,045 +$1,123 +55%
Spread: Knicks (-1.5) Apr 06 $17 −$17 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) Apr 04 $42 −$42 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Apr 04 $600 −$591 -98%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Apr 04 $280 −$280 -100%
Pacers vs. Bulls Apr 01 $256 −$253 -99%
Raptors vs. Pistons Apr 01 $12 +$8 +70%
Trail Blazers vs. Clippers Mar 31 $104 −$103 -99%
Knicks vs. Rockets Mar 31 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Kings (-1.5) Mar 31 $5 +$5 +92%
Hawks vs. Celtics Mar 29 $26 +$14 +52%
Heat vs. Cavaliers Mar 29 $66 +$34 +52%
Clippers vs. Pacers Mar 29 $148 +$42 +29%
Spread: Celtics (-1.5) Mar 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyes Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 28 $6,038 −$6 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 28 $3,011 −$3 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $3,215 −$5 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,018 −$3 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $3,022 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Qatar 83¢ $501 3d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $12 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $50 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $150 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $15 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $250 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $9 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $20 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $52 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $512.84 · official $512.84 (match) · 727 history records