Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:23:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score

D1 0xd14b…ff54 crypto 28 markets active 12h ago coverage 6d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$96 (-29%) realized −$85 · open −$11

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip

Net edge-42%after slip

Net WR27%break-even

Win rate27%6W / 16L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$12per market

Trades / day6.6pace

Kalshi-fit82%portable

Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +27%

net ROI/market (all)-39.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	22	-32.9%	-39.3%	27%	27%	-39.0%
≤30d	22	-32.9%	-39.3%	27%	27%	-39.0%
≤90d	22	-32.9%	-39.3%	27%	27%	-39.0%
all	22	-32.9%	-39.3%	27%	27%	-39.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover6.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-39.3%	27%	-39.0%
10%	-45.1%	27%	-44.8%
15%	-50.4%	27%	-50.1%
20%	-55.3%	23%	-55.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 56% · top 2 70% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -33% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early -6% → late -60% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.54 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$26

Realized−$85

Unrealized−$11

Win rate (resolved)27%

Wins / losses6 / 16

Open positions6

Markets (closed)22 / 28

History coverage6d

Avg bet$12

Trades / day6.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 6 History 22 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	4¢	$10	$11	+$1 (+6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	11¢	11¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+7%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	1¢	1¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+4%)
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	Yes	0¢	0¢	$4	$3	−$1 (-25%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	4¢	1¢	$10	$1	−$9 (-85%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	0¢	$3	$0	−$3 (-90%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	Jun 17	$9	−$9	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	Jun 17	$6	−$6	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	Jun 17	$12	+$9	+74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	Jun 17	$9	+$9	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	Jun 17	$3	−$3	-96%
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Jun 17	$4	−$1	-28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	Jun 17	$23	−$22	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	Jun 17	$10	−$9	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	Jun 11	$9	−$9	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	Jun 11	$38	−$36	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	Jun 11	$19	−$18	-95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	Jun 11	$19	−$18	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Jun 11	$19	+$59	+312%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	Jun 11	$19	+$8	+41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	Jun 11	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET	Jun 11	$11	−$10	-94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET	Jun 11	$3	+$6	+181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET	Jun 11	$16	+$15	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET	Jun 11	$26	−$25	-96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T?	Jun 11	$15	−$14	-96%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	11¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	42¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET	BUY Down	43¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET	BUY Up	2¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET	BUY Down	1¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	59¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	57¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	55¢	$3	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET	BUY Up	52¢	$3	12h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$3	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$3	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$3	13h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	4¢	$10	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET	BUY Up	40¢	$3	13h
Will Ferran Torres be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	SELL Yes	2¢	$3	13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	48¢	$11	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET	BUY Down	52¢	$11	16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$10	17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET	BUY Down	27¢	$9	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	31¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET	BUY Down	37¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET	BUY Up	20¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET	BUY Up	11¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	BUY Up	23¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	SELL Down	49¢	$26	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET	BUY Down	32¢	$19	6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET	BUY Up	8¢	$11	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.89 · official $25.89 (match) · 52 history records