Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:19:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd14f…8c29 sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 236d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$702 (-22%) realized −$699 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$263per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$97now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$10
14 days+$10
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$679
other 25% −$85
culture 3% +$10
world 3% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 0% -0.2%
≤30d 1 +10.3% -0.2% 100% 0% -0.2%
≤90d 2 -30.7% -37.3% 50% 0% -58.6%
all 11 +20.9% +9.4% 55% 45% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.4% 45% -38.3%
10% -1.1% 45% -44.2%
15% -10.6% 45% -49.6%
20% -19.4% 27% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 66% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -54% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$115 vs −$290 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

236d coverage
Net worth$97
Realized−$699
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 12
History coverage236d
Avg bet$263
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Jun 25 $100 +$10 +10%
OKX IPO in 2026? Apr 12 $370 −$266 -72%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $100 −$14 -14%
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? Jan 07 $100 +$45 +45%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 20 $200 +$139 +70%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $747 +$314 +42%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Nov 09 $100 +$122 +122%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Nov 09 $120 +$57 +48%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 09 $654 −$613 -94%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $460 −$460 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 1h
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? SELL Yes 83¢ $110 1h
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2026? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 74d
OKX IPO in 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $105 74d
OKX IPO in 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $370 112d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 32¢ $86 169d
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $100 169d
Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"? BUY Yes 69¢ $100 177d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? BUY Yes 59¢ $200 201d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 10¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 13¢ $34 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 60¢ $158 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 38¢ $100 228d
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL KT Rolster 63¢ $927 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 89¢ $222 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 39¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 37¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 40¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL KT Rolster 85¢ $177 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 48¢ $20 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY KT Rolster 60¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 28¢ $100 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 25¢ $147 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL KT Rolster $41 228d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY KT Rolster 84¢ $654 228d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports $60 235d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 16¢ $100 235d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY Top Esports 26¢ $300 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.67 · official $96.67 (match) · 32 history records