Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T21:45:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd151…46ff crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$563 (-43%) realized −$821 · open +$258
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -52% what you keep after slip
Net edge-52%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%6W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$793now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 86% −$303
crypto 14% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-43.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -37.6% -43.6% 43% 43% -74.8%
≤30d 14 -37.6% -43.6% 43% 43% -74.8%
≤90d 14 -37.6% -43.6% 43% 43% -74.8%
all 14 -37.6% -43.6% 43% 43% -74.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -43.6% 43% -74.8%
10% ← realistic here -49.0% 29% -77.2%
15% -53.9% 21% -79.4%
20% -58.4% 21% -81.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -72% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -72% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -59% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$74 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$793
Realized−$821
Unrealized+$258
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses6 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 55¢ 81¢ $536 $793 +$258 (+48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 27 $40 +$8 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 27 $36 +$5 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $24 +$12 +52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$11 +97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +54%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 27 $29 −$28 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 27 $22 +$7 +33%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $579 −$560 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $543 52m
XRP Up or Down - June 27, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 1h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 86¢ $48 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $40 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $41 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $36 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $36 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $24 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Down 92¢ $17 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $10 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $16 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 27, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET SELL Down 60¢ $29 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $22 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL No 1¢ $19 19h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 29¢ $579 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $793.46 · official $793.56 (match) · 25 history records