Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd151…38e8 crypto 294 markets active 5d ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$65 (-5%) realized −$65 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate93%272W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$12
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$30
other 8% −$15
finance 6% −$13
tech 2% −$4
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -13.8% -22.0% 84% 0% -21.7%
≤30d 44 -4.4% -13.5% 93% 0% -13.4%
≤90d 294 -4.6% -13.7% 93% 1% -13.8%
all 294 -4.6% -13.7% 93% 1% -13.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 1% -13.8%
10% -22.0% 0% -22.0%
15% -29.5% 0% -29.5%
20% -36.4% 0% -36.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$65
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)93%
Wins / losses272 / 22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage84d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +5%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 8PM ET Jun 10 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +2%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 9? Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 09 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET May 09 $4 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 09 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 8, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET May 09 $5 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - May 8, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET May 09 $5 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 12? BUY Up 98¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
BNB Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 5d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 11? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 5d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down on June 11? BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 6d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 6d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 6d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $5 6d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
XRP Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
BNB Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 7d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 7d
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 7d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 590 history records