Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:49:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd154…9c74 sports 372 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 9d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (350 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$42,548 (-19%) realized −$38,768 · open −$3,780
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -51% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -63% what you keep after slip
Net edge-63%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate22%154W / 555L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$600per market
Trades / day350.1pace
Fees−$1,842est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$45,207now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% +$20,259
other 29% −$2,641
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (350 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-56.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 640 -54.7% -59.0% 19% 16% -16.8%
≤30d 709 -51.4% -56.0% 22% 18% -12.5%
≤90d 709 -51.4% -56.0% 22% 18% -12.5%
all 709 -51.4% -56.0% 22% 18% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover350.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -56.0% 18% -12.5%
10% ← realistic here -60.2% 15% -20.9%
15% -64.1% 11% -28.5%
20% -67.6% 8% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -51% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -23% → late -80% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$81 · ×3.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$45,207
Realized−$38,768
Unrealized−$3,780
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses154 / 555
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$1,842
Open positions28
Markets (closed)709 / 372
History coverage9d ⚠
Avg bet$600
Trades / day350.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 28 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $12,400 $12,800 +$400 (+3%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 44¢ $11,206 $8,904 −$2,301 (-21%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 67¢ 76¢ $6,700 $7,550 +$850 (+13%)
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 66¢ $5,314 $5,437 +$123 (+2%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $1,517 $2,238 +$721 (+47%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 64¢ $1,775 $1,977 +$202 (+11%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 74¢ 100¢ $1,154 $1,566 +$412 (+36%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs EDward Gaming 66¢ 91¢ $861 $1,185 +$324 (+38%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 8¢ $3,500 $850 −$2,650 (-76%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BetBoom Team 82¢ 100¢ $560 $685 +$125 (+22%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Galions 67¢ 80¢ $359 $428 +$70 (+20%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $404 $415 +$11 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BetBoom Team 57¢ 100¢ $222 $388 +$166 (+75%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs XLG Gaming 20¢ 9¢ $385 $170 −$214 (-56%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Galions 48¢ 48¢ $165 $167 +$2 (+1%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs Solary 39¢ 20¢ $223 $111 −$112 (-50%)
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027? Yes 35¢ 33¢ $81 $76 −$5 (-6%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 25¢ $45 $43 −$1 (-3%)
Will Victor Marx win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election? Yes 42¢ 67¢ $25 $39 +$14 (+58%)
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Team Nemesis 88¢ 100¢ $33 $38 +$5 (+14%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner EDward Gaming 85¢ 100¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+18%)
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner XLG Gaming 60¢ 100¢ $15 $25 +$10 (+67%)
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Galions 55¢ 100¢ $13 $23 +$10 (+82%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner x5 Gaming 43¢ 100¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+132%)
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs Lindorfitos 58¢ 71¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 463 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Senshi Esports Club vs mCon esports - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lazer Cats vs 2007 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Passion UA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Ghools Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 15 $27 −$27 -100%
Oeiras 4: Storm Hunter vs Lucie Havlickova Jun 15 $68 −$30 -45%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $10,000 −$9,885 -99%
Valorant: Misa Esports vs Galatasaray Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Sarasota: Hugo Dellien vs Darwin Blanch Jun 15 $460 −$253 -55%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Jun 15 $475 −$475 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $90 −$90 -100%
LoL: Natus Vincere vs Team Vitality - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $9 +$6 +72%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Ghools Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Grou Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-Zero Tenacity - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
ITF Bucharest: Stefan Horia Haita vs Radu Mihai Papoe Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Team Secret Whales vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $46 −$46 -100%
Dota 2: L1ga Team vs GamerLegion - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will AEK win on 2026-04-16? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Upper Austria Ladies Linz: Paula Badosa vs Lilli Tagger Jun 15 $1,340 −$1,263 -94%
Will Fenerbahçe SK vs. Çaykur Rizespor end in a draw? Jun 15 $80 −$90 -113%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: Heretics vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA League K Jun 15 $1 +$3 +308%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs G2 Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo Jun 15 $134 −$134 -100%
Campinas: Gustavo Heide vs Pedro Boscardin Dias Jun 15 $38 +$97 +257%
T20 World Cup Sub Regional Europe Qualifier A: Switzerland vs Malta Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Makarska: Noma Noha Akugue vs Sara Sorribes Tormo Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: Sentinels vs Disguised - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $52 −$43 -82%
Counter-Strike: Banger Gang vs ZOTIX (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Play Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PARIVISION (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 15 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Al Hazem SC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Club Atlético de Madrid (-2.5) Jun 15 $19 −$19 -100%
Valorant: Trace Esports vs TEC Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $225 −$225 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $83 −$83 -100%
Kraken vs. Jets: O/U 6.5 Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs South America Rejects - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Valorant: AKA HERO vs eSports Cologne - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $16 −$16 -100%
BC Dubai vs. Anadolu Efes Jun 15 $72 +$83 +116%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. KT Wiz Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs REBORN - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Valorant: Eternal Fire Passion vs Bushido Wildcats (BO3) - VCL Türkiye Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 59¢ $14 0m
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY x5 Gaming 37¢ $5 0m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 49¢ $49 2m
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming (BO3) - The International South Ameri BUY Lindorfitos 64¢ $5 4m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $3 7m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 11¢ $16 8m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 9¢ $1 9m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 8¢ $6 9m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 46¢ $14 10m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $2 11m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 10¢ $4 11m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 51¢ $58 11m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 12¢ $4 12m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 17¢ $2 14m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 25¢ $2 16m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 18¢ $28 16m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 83¢ $23 18m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 83¢ $17 19m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 80¢ $11 21m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $13 22m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $8 23m
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Galions 44¢ $46 23m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 27¢ $15 24m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Solary 19¢ $23 30m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 77¢ $116 32m
LoL: Solary vs Galions (BO5) - EMEA Masters Playoffs BUY Galions 76¢ $115 32m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 55¢ $34 34m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $4 34m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $5 36m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 56¢ $85 36m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45,207.41 · official $45,207.41 (match) · 3500 history records