Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:24:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D1 0xd15b…d0f6 crypto 520 markets active 2h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$529 (+1%) realized +$529 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate96%500W / 20L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$168
14 days+$413
30 days+$576
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$528
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +5.0% -5.0% 100% 8% -5.3%
≤30d 168 +3.7% -6.2% 99% 8% -6.3%
≤90d 513 +1.1% -8.5% 96% 5% -8.6%
all 520 +1.2% -8.5% 96% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 5% -8.6%
10% -17.2% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.2% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.6% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$86 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$529
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses500 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)520 / 520
History coverage92d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 520 Trades
no open positions (13 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $101 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET Jun 20 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET Jun 19 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET Jun 19 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET Jun 18 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$14 +14%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET Jun 17 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET Jun 17 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$6 +6%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4AM ET Jun 16 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $13 +$2 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$10 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11AM ET Jun 15 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $100 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$2 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12PM ET Jun 13 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5AM ET Jun 12 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2AM ET Jun 12 $23 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 11, 4AM ET Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 2AM ET Jun 11 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$4 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 10PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$5 +5%
Solana Up or Down - June 10, 8PM ET Jun 11 $100 +$6 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $15 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $101 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 11PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 7h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 6PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 11h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 1PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $85 16h
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $74 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $26 26h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $41 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $59 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 35h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 11AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $4 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $96 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $21 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $79 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $42 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $29 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $4 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 4PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $100 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $53 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1568 history records