Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:48:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd15d…df55 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$316 (-11%) realized −$316 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate67%24W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$42
14 days−$300
30 days−$300
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$304
other 11% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -4.8% -13.8% 62% 42% -12.1%
≤30d 36 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 44% -19.0%
≤90d 36 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 44% -19.0%
all 36 -6.5% -15.4% 67% 44% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 44% -19.0%
10% -23.5% 36% -26.7%
15% -30.9% 17% -33.8%
20% -37.6% 11% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -24% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$64 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$316
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses24 / 12
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage12d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $140 +$4 +3%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $3 $0 +12%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $140 +$1 +1%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $40 +$23 +57%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $116 +$3 +2%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $40 −$40 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $50 +$13 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $31 +$9 +29%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $71 +$28 +40%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $83 +$54 +65%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $50 −$50 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner Jun 21 $17 −$17 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $30 +$10 +32%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $25 −$25 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 18 $82 +$4 +5%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $34 −$34 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $12 +$48 +400%
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $98 +$69 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $131 −$119 -91%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $202 +$11 +6%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $40 +$12 +30%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $100 +$6 +6%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $63 +$21 +34%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $93 +$7 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $149 +$6 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $40 −$40 -99%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $151 +$39 +26%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $133 +$18 +13%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $110 +$23 +21%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $294 −$294 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $77 +$33 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $80 +$21 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 89¢ $3 52m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 97¢ $140 59m
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 100¢ $141 1h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $140 2h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 63¢ $40 4h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $116 9h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 51¢ $30 10h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $40 10h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $50 23h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $31 27h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 71¢ $71 35h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $83 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $50 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 34¢ $17 2d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 8¢ $10 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $40 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $30 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $14 5d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $13 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $6 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $12 6d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 68¢ $2 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 20¢ $12 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $5 6d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $98 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $86 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 7¢ $11 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $82 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 70 history records