Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:30:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D1 0xd161…4cc1 sports 448 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 68d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$34,070 (-11%) realized −$34,070 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -41% what you keep after slip
Net edge-41%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate30%240W / 567L
Whale WR24%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$693per market
Trades / day47.0pace
Fees−$5,022est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% −$28,169
other 3% −$308
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 411 -38.9% -44.7% 11% 11% -88.9%
≤30d 529 -29.0% -35.7% 21% 20% -77.3%
≤90d 807 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 28% -53.8%
all 807 -20.2% -27.8% 30% 28% -53.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -27.8% 28% -53.8%
10% -34.7% 26% -58.2%
15% ← realistic here -41.0% 23% -62.3%
20% -46.8% 20% -66.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 24% (≥$804) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -40% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$388 vs −$622 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$34,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses240 / 567
Whale WR (big bets)24%
Est. fees paid−$5,022
Open positions0
Markets (closed)807 / 448
History coverage69d ⚠
Avg bet$693
Trades / day47.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 807 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $260 −$260 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Tofiq Musayev (Lightweight, Pr Jun 20 $248 −$248 -100%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $427 −$427 -100%
Bulls vs. Hornets Jun 20 $268 −$277 -104%
Hornets vs. Celtics Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jun 20 $135 +$15 +11%
Rockets vs. Kings Jun 20 $305 −$305 -100%
Clippers vs. Hawks Jun 20 $434 −$384 -88%
Timberwolves vs. Hawks Jun 20 $286 −$127 -45%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $17 −$18 -102%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 20 $36 −$36 -100%
Suns vs. 76ers Jun 20 $24 +$21 +88%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Oumar Sy (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Jun 20 $750 −$750 -100%
Nuggets vs. Celtics Jun 20 $381 +$387 +102%
76ers vs. Pelicans Jun 20 $864 −$864 -100%
Knicks vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $401 −$401 -100%
Lakers vs. Clippers Jun 20 $326 −$321 -98%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage Jun 20 $1,246 −$1,246 -100%
Bulls vs. Kings Jun 20 $550 −$550 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Jun 20 $330 +$251 +76%
Hawks vs. Grizzlies Jun 20 $330 −$250 -76%
Bulls vs. Jazz Jun 20 $422 −$389 -92%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $555 −$555 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yakult Brothers - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $14 −$14 -100%
UFC 327: Kelvin Gastelum vs. Vicente Luque (Middleweight, Early Prelim Jun 20 $1,496 −$1,496 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs PARIVISION - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $624 −$627 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Jun 20 $168 −$168 -100%
Lakers vs. Mavericks Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Hornets vs. Spurs Jun 20 $290 −$290 -100%
Dota 2: Team Tidebound vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $1,114 −$1,114 -100%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $96 −$96 -100%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 20 $110 −$78 -71%
Suns vs. Rockets Jun 20 $310 −$45 -14%
Spurs vs. Nuggets Jun 20 $696 −$386 -56%
Jazz vs. Thunder Jun 20 $156 −$156 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 20 $1,045 −$1,045 -100%
Heat vs. Lakers Jun 20 $435 −$435 -100%
Hornets vs. Suns Jun 20 $660 −$660 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Lakers Jun 20 $385 −$385 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Heat Jun 20 $300 −$300 -100%
Jazz vs. Warriors Jun 20 $310 −$265 -86%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stag Jun 20 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere (BO1) Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $185 −$185 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs MOUZ - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $417 −$417 -100%
Dota 2: Kukuys vs Execration - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $809 −$809 -100%
Spurs vs. Lakers Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winner Jun 20 $1,097 −$1,097 -100%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs MOUZ (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 20 $11 −$11 -100%
Clippers vs. Pelicans Jun 20 $480 −$480 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $57 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $107 1h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $2 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $176 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1 2h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 73¢ $328 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $74 3h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 25¢ $1 3h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $6 5h
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $167 5h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $10 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $402 5h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $4 5h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $4 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $805 5h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $7 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 90¢ $63 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 90¢ $22 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) SELL Australia 90¢ $6 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $69 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $8 6h
Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY Australia 85¢ $93 6h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $17 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $600 9h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $10 10h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $1 11h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $198 11h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $1 13h
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, SELL Navajo Stirling 73¢ $10 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records