Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T18:36:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D1 0xd162…a37e other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 151d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$4 (-2%) realized −$11 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit25%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$10
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$23
tech 17% +$26
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-28.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +50.7% +36.4% 100% 100% +36.4%
≤30d 2 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 50% -54.1%
≤90d 2 -24.6% -31.8% 50% 50% -54.1%
all 4 -21.0% -28.5% 50% 50% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.5% 50% -13.6%
10% -35.4% 50% -21.9%
15% -41.6% 50% -29.4%
20% -47.3% 50% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions4
Markets (closed)4 / 8
History coverage151d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 100¢ $40 $46 +$6 (+16%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $45 $45 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $24 $24 +$0 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 +$10 +51%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $40 −$40 -99%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Feb 21 $40 +$26 +65%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? Feb 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $24 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 42¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $40 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $45 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $31 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $40 10d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru SELL Yes 99¢ $66 122d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru BUY Yes 60¢ $40 137d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on January 23? BUY Up 1¢ $1 151d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $135.75 · official $135.75 (match) · 11 history records