Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:10:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D1 0xd165…f2b8 sports 165 markets active 2h ago coverage 141d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$9,250 (+4%) realized +$9,263 · open −$13
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate75%121W / 40L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$1,443per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2,587now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$192
14 days−$828
30 days+$274
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$10,403
politics 9% −$35
other 6% −$526
sports 4% +$112
finance 3% +$37
culture 2% −$824
crypto 1% +$70
tech 0% −$34
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +17.8% +6.6% 80% 60% -8.1%
≤30d 19 -12.8% -21.1% 68% 42% -9.1%
≤90d 85 -4.1% -13.2% 80% 39% -5.6%
all 161 -6.9% -15.8% 75% 36% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 36% -6.0%
10% -23.9% 19% -15.0%
15% -31.2% 11% -23.2%
20% -38.0% 4% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$126 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.83 per $1 lost it wins $2.83
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$2,587
Realized+$9,263
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses121 / 40
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions4
Markets (closed)161 / 165
History coverage141d
Avg bet$1,443
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 161 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $1,000 $995 −$5 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 82¢ 81¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 20 $10,000 −$74 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,004 +$133 +13%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $101 +$31 +31%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,002 +$62 +6%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 13 $1,003 −$1,000 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 13 $23,368 +$180 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $22,130 +$1,048 +5%
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev May 31 $10 +$1 +7%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima May 31 $10 +$3 +34%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca May 30 $10 −$10 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev May 30 $150 +$5 +3%
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul May 29 $30 +$12 +40%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga May 28 $102 +$18 +18%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik May 28 $30 −$30 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien May 28 $150 +$43 +29%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $38 +$12 +32%
Geneva Open: Edas Butvilas vs Alexander Bublik May 20 $101 +$36 +36%
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17? May 18 $200 −$4 -2%
Will 80 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May May 18 $200 +$7 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 18 $17,564 +$192 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 14 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-14? May 14 $302 +$73 +24%
Colorado Rockies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 14 $10 +$6 +60%
Bordeaux: Aleksandar Vukic vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 14 $890 +$8 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Iga Swiatek vs Elina Svitolina May 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Trump's remarks not air? May 14 $100 +$11 +11%
Will Trump say "Confucius" or "Confucian" during Chinese State Banquet May 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 14 $1,007 +$21 +2%
Cordoba: Ryan Dickerson vs Nicolas Kicker May 14 $30 +$6 +19%
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings? May 13 $157 +$2 +1%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $30 +$8 +26%
Bordeaux: Raphael Collignon vs Geoffrey Blancaneaux May 13 $30 +$4 +13%
Valencia: Matteo Berrettini vs Taro Daniel May 13 $30 +$5 +16%
Zagreb: Yannick Alexandrescou vs Thanasi Kokkinakis May 13 $30 −$13 -43%
Oeiras 4: Eero Vasa vs Jaime Faria May 13 $30 +$3 +11%
Valencia: Henri Squire vs Daniel Altmaier May 13 $30 +$11 +38%
Bordeaux: Martin Damm vs Grigor Dimitrov May 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-11? May 12 $153 +$73 +48%
Will NEOM SC win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $156 +$17 +11%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Flavio Cobolli vs Thiago Agustin Tirante May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Alexei Popyrin May 11 $168 +$5 +3%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Iva Jovic May 11 $121 +$35 +29%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $101 +$20 +20%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Laura Siegemund vs Karolina Pliskova May 11 $100 +$10 +10%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Alexander Blockx vs Alexander Zverev May 10 $101 +$31 +31%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Jiri Lehecka May 10 $10 +$6 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 82¢ $503 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1,003 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 90¢ $2,743 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 90¢ $4,290 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,577 1h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,316 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $1,004 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 94¢ $4,892 2d
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 89¢ $5,108 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 7d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,003 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,002 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $23,548 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $23,368 18d
Roland Garros ATP: Jesper de Jong vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Joao Fonseca BUY Casper Ruud 59¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Brandon Nakashima BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 74¢ $10 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 98¢ $120 21d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 89¢ $72 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Alex de Minaur vs Jakub Mensik BUY Alex de Minaur 77¢ $30 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Tommy Paul BUY Casper Ruud 71¢ $30 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Alexander Zverev BUY Alexander Zverev 93¢ $30 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Roman Andres Burruchaga BUY Felix Auger-Aliassime 76¢ $30 23d
Roland Garros ATP: Facundo Acosta vs Learner Tien BUY Learner Tien 77¢ $150 23d
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud BUY Casper Ruud 75¢ $38 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,586.54 · official $2,586.60 (match) · 371 history records