Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:27:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D1 0xd169…8ff6 sports 15 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,521 (+70%) realized +$3,720 · open −$199
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +52% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +17% what you keep after slip
Net edge+17%after slip
Net WR64%break-even
Win rate64%7W / 4L
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$334per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$1,446now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% +$2,945
other 37% +$349
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +64%
net ROI/market (all)+37.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +52.0% +37.5% 64% 64% +85.7%
≤30d 11 +52.0% +37.5% 64% 64% +85.7%
≤90d 11 +52.0% +37.5% 64% 64% +85.7%
all 11 +52.0% +37.5% 64% 64% +85.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +37.5% 64% +85.7%
10% ← realistic here +24.4% 64% +67.9%
15% +12.3% 64% +51.7%
20% +1.3% 64% +36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +105% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +52% · $-wt +105% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$569 vs −$123 · ×4.63 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.1 per $1 lost it wins $8.1
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$1,446
Realized+$3,720
Unrealized−$199
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses7 / 4
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions4
Markets (closed)11 / 15
History coverage1d
Avg bet$334
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $975 $953 −$22 (-2%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals No 72¢ 72¢ $270 $267 −$3 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Yes 29¢ 28¢ $125 $118 −$7 (-6%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Portugal 52¢ 20¢ $275 $108 −$167 (-61%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $326 −$321 -98%
Jordan to win the second half? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $280 +$375 +134%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $281 +$553 +197%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $283 +$379 +134%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $688 +$1,307 +190%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $482 +$449 +93%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $485 +$575 +119%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $330 +$347 +105%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 −$65 -98%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $97 −$96 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $30 4m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $30 4m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 71¢ $30 4m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $30 4m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $30 5m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $30 5m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $30 5m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $30 5m
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY No 73¢ $30 5m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $279 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 29¢ $128 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 2h
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Jordan 48¢ $326 13h
Jordan to win the second half? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 13h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 42¢ $283 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $102 20h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $281 20h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $486 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 42¢ $280 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $586 21h
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 45¢ $485 21h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $330 22h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $482 22h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $66 22h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $4 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $3 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $6 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $1 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $64 23h
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY No 56¢ $13 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,446.07 · official $1,446.07 (match) · 39 history records