Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:01:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd16a…3167 other 239 markets active 0h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%10W / 229L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$206per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$15
14 days−$27
30 days−$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 44% −$37
sports 23% −$20
politics 8% −$7
culture 7% −$8
economics 7% −$5
world 5% −$3
crypto 4% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 176 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 239 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 229
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)239 / 239
History coverage130d
Avg bet$206
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 239 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $475 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $402 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 20 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $380 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $351 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $44 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $316 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $224 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $361 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $366 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $419 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 18 $326 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 17 $119 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $106 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $302 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 17 $266 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $360 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $229 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $449 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $48 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $148 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $127 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $382 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $291 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 14 $220 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $137 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $268 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $49 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 13 $171 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $495 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $301 $0 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $394 −$1 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $380 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $146 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $193 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $1,053 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $52 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $315 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $262 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $261 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $352 −$1 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $127 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $690 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $315 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 14m
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $45 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $45 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $45 4h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $45 6h
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $39 7h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $7 9h
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $46 12h
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $46 14h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $44 15h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $44 16h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $46 19h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $46 21h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $34 25h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $12 27h
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 29h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $46 33h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $46 35h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $46 36h
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $46 37h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 40h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $46 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 42h
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 43h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 46h
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $47 47h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $46 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1367 history records