Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:47:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D1
0xd172…bedc
sports · 227 markets active 2h ago
5.5score
+$206 +7%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$190 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$465
Realized+$190
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses105 / 89
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions33
Markets (closed)194 / 227
History coverage118d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%
Chart Positions 33 History 194 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$110
30 days+$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Seattle Mariners 58¢ 92¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+58%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $26 $30 +$4 (+16%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ 81¢ $10 $24 +$14 (+140%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 48¢ 99¢ $10 $21 +$11 (+107%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Hurricanes 53¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-0%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Yes 19¢ 30¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+55%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? Yes 7¢ 8¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 91¢ 94¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Pacquiao 36¢ 38¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Yes 99¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-0%)
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Alexander Shevchenko 59¢ 58¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Scotland 56¢ 55¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $21 −$20 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 13 $10 +$10 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +114%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $10 +$12 +119%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 13 $10 +$13 +129%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 13 $10 +$14 +134%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 13 $10 +$15 +146%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 13 $20 +$21 +101%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $20 +$22 +109%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $20 +$38 +188%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $10 −$10 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 05 $30 −$3 -11%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 05 $3 +$1 +22%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 Jun 05 $15 +$2 +12%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 05 $68 $0 +0%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets May 30 $10 +$8 +83%
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox May 30 $10 +$9 +90%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres May 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Seattle Mariners vs. Athletics May 30 $10 +$10 +97%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers May 30 $10 +$12 +114%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Boston Red Sox May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 26 $10 −$10 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds May 26 $10 +$10 +101%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO3) - CS Asia Championships G May 26 $20 +$2 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 86% +$213
world 6% −$9
crypto 3% −$2
other 3% +$10
tech 2% −$7
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $20 1h
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz BUY KT Wiz 55¢ $10 1h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $10 1h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Scotland 56¢ $10 1h
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko BUY Alexander Shevchenko 59¢ $10 1h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 67¢ $10 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 71¢ $10 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 13? BUY Yes 7¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 47¢ $10 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $20 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 2¢ $3 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights BUY Hurricanes 53¢ $20 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $20 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 16¢ $10 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $20 1h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 34¢ $10 1h
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY Detroit Tigers 12¢ $10 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $10 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 4¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 48¢ $10 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY KT Rolster 11¢ $10 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +95.4% +76.8% 88% 88% +77.9%
≤30d 98 +6.8% -3.4% 53% 50% -4.1%
≤90d 192 +7.0% -3.2% 55% 51% -2.2%
all 194 +6.3% -3.8% 54% 50% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 50% -3.1%
10% -13.0% 49% -12.3%
15% -21.4% 46% -20.8%
20% -29.1% 44% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $465.44 · official $465.45 (match) · 378 history records