Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd176…78bb sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$19 (+2%) realized +$106 · open −$87
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$70
other 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 36% -8.6%
≤30d 22 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 36% -8.6%
≤90d 22 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 36% -8.6%
all 22 -15.9% -23.9% 50% 36% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 36% -8.6%
10% -31.2% 36% -17.3%
15% -37.8% 36% -25.3%
20% -43.9% 32% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$18 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized+$106
Unrealized−$87
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)22 / 24
History coverage3d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 59¢ 56¢ $135 $129 −$6 (-4%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ $81 $0 −$81 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $145 −$8 -6%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $13 +$10 +79%
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals Jun 21 $8 +$1 +8%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners Jun 21 $20 −$20 -99%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $51 +$29 +57%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $24 −$24 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $145 +$101 +70%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $30 −$29 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $22 −$22 -99%
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $14 +$8 +57%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $46 −$10 -22%
LoL: T1 Academy vs KT Rolster Challengers (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoff Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $33 −$33 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 2.5 Corners Jun 19 $7 −$7 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $26 +$13 +48%
Canada vs. Qatar: 1st Half O/U 4.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $35 +$28 +78%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $20 +$1 +4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 +$11 +109%
Czechia vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $14 +$9 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $137 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 42¢ $136 1h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 43¢ $145 1h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $24 4h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 100¢ $24 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $29 4h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals SELL No 100¢ $9 4h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $29 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 1.5 Corners BUY Over 71¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 5h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 5h
Lamine Yamal: 3+ goals BUY No 92¢ $8 5h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $13 11h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 14h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $24 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $246 24h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $145 25h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 40¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 39¢ $15 28h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 67¢ $15 28h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 53¢ $30 38h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $15 38h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 69¢ $22 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 2d
United States vs. Australia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 63¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $14 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 42¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 28¢ $6 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $15 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 47¢ $15 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.26 · official $129.29 (match) · 49 history records