Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:58:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D1 0xd177…1c8a other 98 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$271 (+7%) realized +$263 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%48W / 48L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit32%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days+$58
14 days+$147
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% +$214
sports 23% −$37
crypto 1% +$26
world 1% +$24
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.3% -6.5% 43% 43% -1.4%
≤30d 50 -2.7% -12.0% 46% 42% -6.5%
≤90d 96 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 46% -1.6%
all 96 +7.2% -3.0% 50% 46% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 46% -1.6%
10% -12.3% 46% -11.0%
15% -20.8% 45% -19.6%
20% -28.5% 38% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$23 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$263
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses48 / 48
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)96 / 98
History coverage68d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit32%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 96 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 58¢ 74¢ $28 $36 +$8 (+28%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) New Zealand 56¢ 56¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $47 +$47 +101%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 −$19 -62%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 26 $66 +$31 +47%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $35 −$31 -87%
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? Jun 24 $23 +$23 +97%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $16 −$10 -62%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $13 −$6 -44%
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $30 +$54 +182%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $35 −$21 -58%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 22 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $45 +$21 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $46 −$25 -55%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 −$15 -60%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $26 −$3 -10%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $24 +$20 +83%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $21 +$29 +134%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -12%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $44 +$31 +70%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $25 +$15 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $44 +$31 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $73 +$47 +64%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $29 −$8 -28%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $92 +$28 +31%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $59 +$33 +57%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $68 +$27 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $40 +$28 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $103 −$62 -61%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $69 +$33 +48%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $66 −$39 -59%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $40 −$30 -77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $34 −$19 -56%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$4 -52%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $33 +$29 +86%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $52 +$29 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$17 -64%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $30 −$6 -21%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $32 +$32 +97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $27 −$27 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $71 +$29 +42%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) May 31 $101 −$93 -92%
Will United States win on 2026-05-31? May 31 $191 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-05-27? May 31 $35 +$41 +119%
United States vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 May 31 $34 −$27 -78%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $112 −$79 -70%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-05-29? May 29 $26 −$12 -47%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 28 $38 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 58¢ $28 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY New Zealand 56¢ $25 2h
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 80¢ $16 4h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $47 6h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $20 21h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 12¢ $12 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) SELL Netherlands 68¢ $97 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 45¢ $66 26h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 45¢ $16 27h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 28h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 46h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2d
Bosnia-Herzegovina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $23 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 18¢ $6 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $16 2d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) SELL Croatia 26¢ $7 3d
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) BUY Croatia 45¢ $13 3d
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 35¢ $30 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 24¢ $15 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 55¢ $35 3d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $21 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $46 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) SELL Uruguay 19¢ $10 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 45¢ $25 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) SELL Belgium 39¢ $24 5d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.74 · official $60.74 (match) · 189 history records