Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:58:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd178…6703 other 357 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 128d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$208,516 (-27%) realized −$207,935 · open −$581
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -43% what you keep after slip
Net edge-43%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate40%194W / 293L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,171per market
Trades / day25.5pace
Fees−$600est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$4,223now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$6,692
sports 24% −$22,163
crypto 13% −$11,337
world 1% +$3,834
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -73.7% -76.2% 14% 14% -92.6%
≤30d 222 -53.3% -57.8% 23% 22% -86.6%
≤90d 354 -33.0% -39.4% 35% 33% -71.3%
all 487 -17.6% -25.4% 40% 36% -55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.5 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.4% 36% -55.0%
10% -32.6% 31% -59.3%
15% ← realistic here -39.1% 23% -63.2%
20% -45.1% 17% -66.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -68% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$3,256) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +15% → late -50% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
8.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,212 vs −$3,315 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.24 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$4,223
Realized−$207,935
Unrealized−$581
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses194 / 293
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$600
Open positions12
Markets (closed)487 / 357
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$2,171
Trades / day25.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 487 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $2,116 $2,057 −$59 (-3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 14¢ $1,315 $1,532 +$217 (+16%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 36¢ $81 $213 +$132 (+163%)
Will Endrick score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $82 $93 +$11 (+13%)
Will Gabriel Magalhães score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 26¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+7%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 32¢ $73 $59 −$14 (-19%)
Will Nick Woltemade score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $87 $58 −$29 (-33%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 39¢ 2¢ $875 $52 −$823 (-94%)
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 19¢ $23 $29 +$6 (+28%)
Will Gavi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 23¢ $41 $28 −$13 (-32%)
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 25¢ $33 $19 −$14 (-42%)
Will Alphonso Davies score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 276 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2025-12-21? Jun 26 $805 −$805 -100%
Will Valencia CF win on 2025-12-19? Jun 26 $1,536 −$1,536 -100%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Emiliana Arango Jun 26 $2,573 −$2,573 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jun 26 $4,500 −$4,500 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-12-20? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Jun 26 $4,989 −$4,989 -100%
Nets vs. 76ers Jun 26 $5,258 −$5,258 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 26 $814 −$814 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-12? Jun 26 $1,490 −$1,490 -100%
FIFA Club World Cup: Manchester City vs. Al Hilal (To Advance) Jun 26 $1,925 −$1,925 -100%
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner? Jun 26 $280 −$280 -100%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2025-12-30? Jun 26 $3,503 −$3,503 -100%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-10-23? Jun 26 $1,040 −$1,040 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-09-18? Jun 26 $570 −$570 -100%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-01-14? Jun 26 $1,920 −$1,920 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Musetti vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 26 $2,521 −$2,521 -100%
Will West Ham win on 2025-10-24? Jun 26 $4,126 −$4,126 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $485 −$485 -100%
Will Genoa CFC win on 2025-12-21? Jun 26 $68 −$68 -100%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-02-01? Jun 26 $9,230 −$9,230 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Jun 26 $921 −$921 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-06? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Jun 26 $7,807 −$7,807 -100%
Dodgers vs. Rays Jun 26 $4,364 −$4,364 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2025-11-15? Jun 26 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-12-14? Jun 26 $429 −$429 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-11? Jun 26 $3,079 −$3,079 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 16, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Kairat Almaty win on 2025-09-18? Jun 26 $47 −$47 -100%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) Jun 26 $846 −$846 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Jun 26 $10,940 −$10,940 -100%
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2025-10-23? Jun 26 $18,294 −$18,294 -100%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Jun 26 $830 −$830 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-01-07? Jun 26 $3,420 −$3,420 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Jun 26 $14,843 −$14,843 -100%
Will Levante UD win on 2025-08-29? Jun 26 $1,589 −$1,589 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-10-02? Jun 26 $6,443 −$6,443 -100%
Will Konyaspor win on 2025-11-24? Jun 26 $7,482 −$7,482 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 26 $1,345 −$1,345 -100%
Will Liverpool vs. Nottingham Forest end in a draw? Jun 26 $962 −$962 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-06? Jun 26 $8,469 −$8,469 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-08-23? Jun 26 $9,999 −$9,999 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-09-23? Jun 26 $13,195 −$13,195 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-09-27? Jun 26 $14,189 −$14,189 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Jun 26 $5,443 −$5,443 -100%
Will Celtic win on 2025-08-26? Jun 26 $4,402 −$4,402 -100%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-01-08? Jun 26 $13,200 −$13,200 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-02-06? Jun 26 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Jun 26 $13,485 −$13,485 -100%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-01-11? Jun 26 $4,966 −$4,966 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 39¢ $891 1h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 35¢ $467 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 4¢ $427 1h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 15h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $97 17h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND SELL 5¢ $126 17h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $160 18h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $31 18h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 30¢ $135 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $60 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $48 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 8¢ $206 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $253 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $254 21h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 32¢ $7 21h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 36¢ $248 21h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $134 22h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 38¢ $64 22h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 39¢ $69 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $202 22h
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $814 22h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 34¢ $351 25h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 48¢ $40 32h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 45¢ $89 32h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $237 32h
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $22 32h
Will Gabriel Martinelli score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 43¢ $34 34h
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $9 34h
Will Antonio Rüdiger score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,223.24 · official $4,247.99 (match) · 3500 history records