Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:12:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd179…74ad sports 239 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 38d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (85 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$18,095 (-3%) realized −$17,999 · open −$96
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate53%126W / 111L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,502per market
Trades / day85.1pace
Fees−$5,614est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 38d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$45,914
other 26% −$4,609
crypto 0% −$194
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (85 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 57 -2.5% -11.8% 58% 14% -10.0%
≤30d 201 -7.8% -16.5% 50% 12% -19.9%
≤90d 237 -7.0% -15.8% 53% 14% -17.7%
all 237 -7.0% -15.8% 53% 14% -17.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover85.1 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 14% -17.7%
10% -23.9% 7% -25.6%
15% ← realistic here -31.3% 5% -32.8%
20% -38.0% 5% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$3,607) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
11.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$212 vs −$696 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$17,999
Unrealized−$96
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses126 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$5,614
Open positions1
Markets (closed)237 / 239
History coverage38d ⚠
Avg bet$2,502
Trades / day85.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 237 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Yes 32¢ $96 $0 −$96 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $6,690 +$468 +7%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $3,768 +$232 +6%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Alexei Popyrin Jun 22 $102 −$67 -66%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Raphael Collignon vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Jun 22 $1,600 +$400 +25%
Mallorca Championships: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Martin Landaluce Jun 22 $1,800 −$300 -17%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Elias Ymer Jun 22 $1,276 +$202 +16%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Roman Safiullin vs James McCabe Jun 22 $600 −$600 -100%
Bad Homburg Open: Clara Tauson vs Diana Shnaider Jun 22 $1,815 −$315 -17%
Bad Homburg Open: Iva Jovic vs Xinyu Wang Jun 22 $1,420 −$435 -31%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $3,710 −$710 -19%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,710 −$404 -15%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $1,700 −$200 -12%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,780 +$154 +9%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $1,900 $0 -0%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $3,300 −$76 -2%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Adam Walton vs Antoine Ghibaudo Jun 21 $1,888 +$69 +4%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $2,559 −$212 -8%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,765 −$265 -7%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $3,835 +$165 +4%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 20 $1,885 +$115 +6%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $3,857 +$143 +4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,870 +$130 +3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $1,829 −$329 -18%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $1,865 +$135 +7%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 19 $1,815 +$185 +10%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Fery vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 19 $1,785 −$101 -6%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 19 $55 +$91 +166%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Raphael Collignon Jun 19 $1,590 −$90 -6%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $1,702 +$25 +2%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $1,804 +$8 +0%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1,903 +$99 +5%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,896 +$104 +6%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $1,906 −$106 -6%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,907 +$93 +5%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $1,923 +$82 +4%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 18 $25 −$25 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $1,953 +$52 +3%
Halle Open: Fabian Marozsan vs Taylor Fritz Jun 18 $1,915 +$90 +5%
Halle Open: Raphael Collignon vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,880 +$120 +3%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3,885 −$242 -6%
HSBC Championships: Jenson Brooksby vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 17 $18 +$11 +61%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Lorenzo Sonego Jun 17 $1,937 +$63 +3%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $312 +$10 +3%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 17 $1,842 +$166 +9%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $1,915 +$85 +4%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1,898 +$104 +6%
HSBC Championships: Arthur Rinderknech vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 16 $1,780 +$220 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.15 · official $0.15 (match) · 3500 history records