Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:15:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D1 0xd17a…f0d6 other 134 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate39%52W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$2
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$2
other 27% +$6
politics 21% −$1
sports 16% −$8
crypto 4% −$2
economics 4% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -0.4% -9.9% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 24 -4.1% -13.3% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 77 -1.8% -11.1% 34% 0% -9.5%
all 134 +0.9% -8.7% 39% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 1% -9.6%
10% -17.4% 1% -18.3%
15% -25.4% 1% -26.2%
20% -32.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses52 / 82
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage470d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $35 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $70 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $33 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $36 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $192 −$1 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $37 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $31 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $35 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $110 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $38 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $103 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $70 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $68 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 02 $38 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $1 $0 -20%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $69 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 22 $65 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $2 $0 -6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $34 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $35 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 10 $35 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 08 $35 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $73 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $111 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $69 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $49 +$2 +4%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $5 −$2 -42%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $72 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 20 $106 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $42 +$1 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $56 $0 +0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $34 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 14 $34 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $104 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 11 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $36 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 80¢ $35 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 41¢ $36 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 42¢ $37 13h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $3 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $12 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $18 23h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $33 26h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $9 37h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $24 37h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $36 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $0 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $14 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $36 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 26¢ $2 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 26¢ $37 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $27 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $4 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $1 9d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY No 33¢ $30 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.46 · official $0.00 · 493 history records